[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242229
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 06N62W to 18N60W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 54W-62W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near
11N. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-20N between 55W-
63W and continues to be enhanced by a middle to upper level
trough with axis extending from 27N61W southward to an upper level
low near 16N65W to a broad base over northeastern South America.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
11N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N22W to 08N40W to 07N48W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 02N-11N between 22W-40W...and
from 05N-17N between 40W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A vigorous middle to upper level trough is noted over the Great
Lakes and Mississippi River valley with a broad base dipping
southward to 28N over the far northern Gulf. The deep layered low
supports a cold front extending from Cape Canaveral Florida SW to
Fort Myers then to the NW tip of the Yucatan peninsula to the
southern Mexico coast near 18N93W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front as it
continues to move eastward and will clear the basin by Wednesday.
With the frontal passage...strong to near gale northerly winds are
occurring and expected to persist through Wednesday afternoon as
high pressure builds southeastward out of Texas into the western
Gulf tonight into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
western Caribbean near 15N82W and continues to provide an overall
divergent environment aloft promoting scattered to numerous
showers and scattered strong tstms W of a line from western Cuba
near 23N82W to the coast of Colombia near 10N75W. A pre-frontal
trough is analyzed across western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras and
is providing low-level focus for the ongoing convection. In
addition...the cold front currently across the SE Gulf of Mexico
will move into the NW Caribbean Wednesday shifting winds northerly
and increasing them into fresh to strong breeze levels through
Thursday. Farther east...a tropical wave lies along 61W across the
Lesser Antilles this evening generating scattered showers and
tstms from 08N-21N between 55W-62W. Much of this convection is
continuing to be enhanced due to an upper level trough axis
extending from 27N61W southward to an upper level low near 16N65W.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin
this evening.

...HISPANIOLA...
Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather
across the island through Wednesday. Moderate trades are expected
to persist.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough continues to progress eastward out
of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River valley region towards the
eastern US seaboard this evening. The trough supports a cold front
extending from the Delmarva S-SW to 32N77W to the Florida
peninsula near Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring within 210 nm east of the front. The remainder
of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 39N58W with axis
extending SW through Bermuda to the central Bahamas near 24N76W.
Within the southern periphery of this ridging...a stationary front
extends from 32N33W to 26N45W to 26N59W. A surface trough also
extends from 25N58W to 21N64W. This surface trough along with the
western extent of the stationary front are supported aloft by an
upper level trough axis from 31N60W to 24N62W. Low-level moisture
convergence in the vicinity of the front and ample middle to upper
level divergence is producing scattered showers and tstms from
18N-30N between 48W-62W. This area of convection lies generally N
of the tropical wave along 61W moving across the Caribbean Sea.
Finally...weak surface ridging extends across the eastern Atlc
from the Iberian peninsula SW to 25N35W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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