[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N35W to 16N34W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and coincides with 700 mb
troughing between 29W-36W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity along the wave axis near 12N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-17N between 28W-38W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N63W to 16N63W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
60W-65W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 11N. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-
16N between 58W-65W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N72W to 18N71W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
68W-74W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 15N. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-19N
between 66W-72W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N85W to 17N85W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing over Central
America and a relatively divergent environment aloft due to an
upper level anticyclone centered near 16N85W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 08N-17N between 79W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
06N15W to 08N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 08N23W to 10N35W to 07N50W to 06N56W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 38W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from the NW Bahamas SW to across the
Florida Straits near 24N82W. The front is supported aloft by a
middle to upper level trough over the SE CONUS and Florida
peninsula. Most convection is occurring across the SW North Atlc
waters...however a few isolated showers and tstms are noted S of
25N between 80W-83W. Another area of isolated showers is noted
from 25N-27N between 90W-96W...however these remain shallow and
continue moving westward within dry air aloft. Moderate to
occasional fresh E-NE winds are expected Thursday with surface
ridging remaining in place across the SE CONUS through the
upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over Honduras near 16N85W
providing an overall divergent environment over the western
Caribbean W of 80W. Scattered showers and strong tstms are
occurring generally W of 80W beneath the upper level feature...
however in addition a tropical wave along 85W continues to
provide focus for the convective activity as well. To the east of
the tropical wave...the monsoon trough extends along 10N with
scattered showers and strong tstms occurring S of 12N between
72W-83W...including inland portions of northern Colombia and
Panama. The remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean
features two tropical waves mentioned above. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms stretch from the southern adjacent coastal waters
of Hispaniola southeastward to the Lesser Antilles and across
Trinidad and Tobago. Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades prevail E
of 76W and are expected to gradually expand westward through
Sunday as the pressure gradient strengthens from high pressure
anchored across the western North Atlc.

...HISPANIOLA...
A pair of tropical waves will skirt S of the island through
Friday bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms to southern
portions of the island and the southern adjacent coastal waters.
By Friday...fresh to strong trades are expected as high pressure
builds in across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 32N60W W-SW to 30N70W to the NW
Bahamas near 27N79W to the Florida Straits near 24N82W. The front
is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms across a large
portion of the SW North Atlc this morning and lies within a
relatively broad area of weaker low pressure W of 60W and is
supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough axis extending
from over the eastern U.S. seaboard...the Florida peninsula...and
the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters. The surface troughing will
persist through early Saturday then shift eastward as high
pressure builds in across the eastern CONUS and Atlc seaboard. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near
32N33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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