[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N32W to 15N33W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and coincides with 700 mb
troughing between 28W-35W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity along the wave axis near 12N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-16N between 27W-35W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N63W to 18N63W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
58W-63W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 11N. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-
16N between 58W-66W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N70W to 18N69W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
67W-72W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 15N. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-18N
between 67W-72W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N84W to 15N84W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing over Central
America. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-16N between
80W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to
14N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
14N22W to 10N32W to 08N42W to 08N50W to 06N56W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 35W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A weakening stationary front extends from the southern Florida
peninsula near Key Largo westward to 26N90W then curves S-SW to
the coast of southern Mexico near 18N94W. The front is supported
aloft by a middle to upper level trough over the SE CONUS...
northern Florida...and portions of the NE Gulf waters. Most
convection...isolated showers and tstms...are occurring across the
Florida Straits E of 84W. Another area of isolated showers is
noted from 25N-27N between 88W-95W...however these remain shallow
and continue moving westward within dry air aloft. The front is
expected to continue weakening through Thursday and become diffuse
by Thursday night. Moderate to occasional fresh E-NE winds are
expected Thursday with surface ridging remaining in place across
the SE CONUS through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over Honduras near 15N86W
providing an overall divergent environment over the western
Caribbean W of 80W. Scattered showers and strong tstms are
occurring generally W of 80W beneath the upper level feature...
however in addition a tropical wave along 84W continues to provide
focus for the convective activity as well. To the east of the
tropical wave...the monsoon trough extends along 10N/11N with
scattered showers and strong tstms occurring S of 11N between
72W-81W...including inland portions of northern Colombia. The
remainder of the eastern Caribbean features two tropical waves
mentioned above. Scattered showers and isolated tstms stretch from
the southern adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola southeastward
to the Lesser Antilles and across Trinidad and Tobago.
Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades prevail E of 76W and are
expected to gradually expand westward through Sunday as the
pressure gradient strengthens from high pressure anchored across
the western North Atlc.

...HISPANIOLA...
A pair of tropical waves will skirt S of the island through
Friday bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms to southern
portions of the island and the southern adjacent coastal waters.
By Friday...fresh to strong trades are expected as high pressure
builds in across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 32N62W W-SW to 30N72W to the
Florida Keys generating scattered showers and isolated tstms
across a large portion of the SW North Atlc this evening. This
front lies within a relatively broad area of weaker low pressure
W of 60W and is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough
axis extending from over the SE CONUS...northern Florida...and
the NE Gulf of Mexico waters. The surface troughing will persist
through early Saturday then shift eastward as high pressure builds
in across the eastern CONUS and Atlc seaboard. The remainder of
the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 32N35W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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