[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291923 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 203 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

CORRECTION FOR SPECIAL FEATURES/TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being
forecast for the areas: AGADIR and TARFAYA. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 30/1200
UTC, consists of: N or NE gale or severe gale in AGADIR and
TARFAYA, and NE near gale in CANARIAS, but locally threat gale
between islands and leeward.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N
southward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 04N to 12N between 20W and 26W.

A surface trough is along 27W from 18N to 25N. This trough is
part of the energy of the northern vorticity center that is
accompanying the 19W/20W tropical wave. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 01N to 03N between 48W and 50W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 12N southward between
42W and 50W.

A tropical wave is along 66W from 20N southward, moving westward
15 knots, across Puerto Rico. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 20N between
60W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 89W/90W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate in Guatemala.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
12N24W 10N44W 08N59W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere, away from the
tropical waves, from 10N southward between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through the area that stretches
from east Texas, into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N95W. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N
southward from 90W westward.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 27N86W.
The anticyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 27N86W
center covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

A surface trough is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from
Florida near 29N83W, through the Florida Panhandle into east
Texas. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 27N to 32N inland between 83W and 96W in Texas.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KHIH.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG, KHQI, and KGRY.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong convective precipitation, from 27N in the Gulf of
Mexico to 32N inland between 83W in Florida and 96W in Texas.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Hispaniola, to 15N73W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible between Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica.

A weak upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate inland in
Guatemala.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
86W off the coast of Costa Rica in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 11N southward
from 78W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
28/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 1.20 in
Trinidad, 1.02 in Guadeloupe, 0.75 in Freeport in the Bahamas,
0.38 in Curacao, 0.16 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.11 in
Merida in Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area.
An upper level trough extends from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Hispaniola, to 15N73W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that the current cyclonic
wind flow that is moving across the area will continue for the
next 24 hours or so. Day two will consist of a col point in the
middle of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that E-to-SE wind flow/weak anticyclonic wind flow will move
across the area during day one. Expect NE wind flow for much of
day two, with an inverted trough to move across Hispaniola at the
end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE
wind flow will span the area for the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center
is about 1050 nm to the west of the western edge of the Canary
Islands. A trough extends from the cyclonic center to 20N40W and
11N49W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
associated with cyclonic center and trough.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N53W, about
950 nm to the NE of northern coastal Puerto Rico. An upper level
trough passes through 32N54W to the 28N53W center, to 22N53W.
This trough is being squeezed in between the 30N38W cyclonic
center and its trough, and a second Atlantic Ocean trough that
is about 540  nm to the NW of it. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 22N northward between 50W and 60W.

An upper level trough is pushing eastward, rapidly enough, toward
the 28N53W cyclonic center and trough. This trough passes through
32N63W to 31N70W, beyond 32N78W. A cold front passes through
32N68W to 31N71W. A dissipating stationary front continues from
31N71W to 30N81W. to inland Florida near 29N82W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 240 nm
to the N and NW of the line that passes through 32N56W 29N64W
27N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between Africa and the Bahamas. A ridge passes through 32N49W, to
29N59W 28N76W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 20N northward between Africa and 80W, and away from the
cold front/dissipating stationary front and the 26W/27W surface
trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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