[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 29/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of near gale or gale in AGADIR and
TARFAYA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W/16W from 21N
southward. This position is a median location, and based on long-
loop satellite imagery. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
from 11N to 17N between 13W and 16W, from Guinea to Mauritania.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 04N
to 13N between Africa and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 06N to 14N between 26W and 40W.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 16N southward, moving westward
15 knots, across Puerto Rico. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 90 nm on either side of 17N56W
13N61W 10N67W. isolated moderate from 12N between 52W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. This wave reaches Honduras,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong from 12N to 16N between 80W and 84W.

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W, from 19N southward, across the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is along 08N17W 10N26W. The ITCZ is along
10N26W 11N31W 09N36W 07N39W 05N48W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere, away from the
tropical waves, from 10N southward between 33W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through the area that stretches
from east Texas, into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N95W. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N
southward from 90W westward.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 27N86W.
The anticyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 27N86W center
covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

A surface trough is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from
Florida near 29N83W, through the Florida Panhandle into east
Texas. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 27N to 32N inland between 83W and 96W in Texas.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KHIH.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG, KHQI, and KGRY.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong convective precipitation, from 27N in the Gulf of
Mexico to 32N inland between 83W in Florida and 96W in Texas.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Hispaniola, to 15N73W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible between Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica.

A weak upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate inland in
Guatemala.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
86W off the coast of Costa Rica in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 11N southward from
78W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
28/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 1.20 in
Trinidad, 1.02 in Guadeloupe, 0.75 in Freeport in the Bahamas,
0.38 in Curacao, 0.16 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.11 in
Merida in Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area.
An upper level trough extends from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Hispaniola, to 15N73W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that the current cyclonic
wind flow that is moving across the area will continue for the
next 24 hours or so. Day two will consist of a col point in the
middle of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that E-to-SE wind flow/weak anticyclonic wind flow will move
across the area during day one. Expect NE wind flow for much of
day two, with an inverted trough to move across Hispaniola at the
end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE
wind flow will span the area for the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center
is about 1050 nm to the west of the western edge of the Canary
Islands. A trough extends from the cyclonic center to 20N40W and
11N49W. No significant deep convective precipitation is associated
with cyclonic center and trough.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N53W, about
950 nm to the NE of northern coastal Puerto Rico. An upper level
trough passes through 32N54W to the 28N53W center, to 22N53W. This
trough is being squeezed in between the 30N38W cyclonic center and
its trough, and a second Atlantic Ocean trough that is about 540
nm to the NW of it. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 22N northward between 50W and 60W.

An upper level trough is pushing eastward, rapidly enough, toward
the 28N53W cyclonic center and trough. This trough passes through
32N63W to 31N70W, beyond 32N78W. A cold front passes through
32N68W to 31N71W. A dissipating stationary front continues from
31N71W to 30N81W. to inland Florida near 29N82W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 240 nm
to the N and NW of the line that passes through 32N56W 29N64W
27N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between Africa and the Bahamas. A ridge passes through 32N49W, to
29N59W 28N76W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from
20N northward between Africa and 80W, and away from the cold
front/dissipating stationary front and the 26W/27W surface trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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