[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, in the Gulf of Mexico, at
21/0900 UTC, is near 27.3N 91.9W, or about 170 nm to the SSW of
Morgan City Louisiana, and about 225 NM to the SE of Galveston,
Texas. Cindy is moving NW westward, 310 degrees, 07 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 knots.
The minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Please read the NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/40W from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from
05N to 10N between 35W and 46W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 06N southward between 32W and 38W. It is
possible that some of this precipitation may be related to the
Monsoon Trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/53W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from 06N to 08N
between 50W and 59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W from 22N southward,
through the Windward Passage, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N to 20N
between 70W and 76W, including across parts of Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N22W 07N30W and 07N35W. The ITCZ
is not distinct. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 10N between 13W and 19W,
and from 08N to 10N between 28W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cindy is in the north central part of the area.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery from 24N to 30N between 90W and
93W, and elsewhere from 93W westward.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KEHC.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KXIH, KHQI, KGBK, KVQT, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR, KGRY,
KIKT, KVOA, and KVKY.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Rain, heavy at times and sometimes with thunder, into the
southernmost areas/coastal plains of LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI and
ALABAMA, to Apalachicola in FLORIDA. elsewhere in FLORIDA: IFR in
Tallahassee. MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport, and in
Sarasota.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough is along 76W/77W. Upper level
southerly wind flow is to the east of the trough. Upper level
northerly wind flow is between the trough and 82W. An upper level
ridge is along 85W/86W.

Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea, from 84W westward. This precipitation is
part of the larger-scale cyclonic wind flow that is moving around
T.S. Cindy, that is in the north central Gulf of Mexico.

Remnant energy and multilayered clouds from BRET have been moving
northward in the Caribbean Sea between 64W and 75W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong between 65W
and 72W.

The Monsoon Trough curves from 09N75W in Colombia, through 09N80W
in Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica to El Salvador. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 06N to 12N
between 73W and 82W, and in Nicaragua from 12N northward from 86W
eastward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are 0.54 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, 0.17 in Curacao, and 0.14 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level southerly wind flow is moving across the area. The
upper level inverted trough is along 76W/77W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few
cumulonimbus clouds. The rain and thunder from the last several
observations have stopped for the moment. Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of southerly wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center will
approach Hispaniola from the east, and move across Hispaniola
during at least the first half of day two. A secondary ridge will
move across Hispaniola, from north to south, during the second
half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SE
wind flow will move across the area during the first 1.5 days of
the 48-hour forecast. Expect NE wind flow for the rest of the
time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that easterly wind
flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola
will be on the southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean
ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough cyclonic circulation center is about 375 nm
to the ESE of Bermuda. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 28N to 32N between 58W and 62W. Rainshowers are possible
also from 20N to 30N between 62W and 74W.

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 600 nm to the NW of the Canary Islands, to
19N36W. Rainshowers are possible in broken to overcast low level
and middle level clouds that are to the northwest and north of the
line that passes through 32N12W to 25N20W 14N30W and 14N60W.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 36N48W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean 18N northward
between Africa and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net