[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, in the Gulf of Mexico, at
21/0600 UTC, is near 26.8N 91.4W, or about 200 nm to the south of
Morgan City Louisiana, and about 270 NM to the SE of Galveston,
Texas. Cindy is moving NW westward, 310 degrees, 06 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 knots.
The minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Please read the NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/38W from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 75
nm on either side of 09N35W 06N44W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong 07N southward between 32W and 43W. .

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/51W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most probably
related to the ITCZ, is from 08N southward between 51W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W from 21N southward,
through the Windward Passage, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to 20N across
Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania/Senegal near 16N17W, to 10N21W 07N30W 07N36W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N41W to 05N49W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 07N to 10N between 25W and 28W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 10N between 10W
and 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cindy is in the north central part of the area.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery from 22N northward to the
coasts of Texas and Louisiana from 90W westward.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KEIR.

IFR: KGHB.

MVFR: KEHC, KGBK, KVQT, KSPR, KGRY, KATP, KIKT, KVOA,
KVKY, KMIS and KDLP.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA: rain, heavy at times and sometimes with thunder, from
New Iberia eastward and southeastward, including around Lake
Pontchartrain, into the MISSISSIPPI coastal plains, to the
southernmost areas/coastal plains of ALABAMA, to Perry in FLORIDA.
rain in parts of the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough is along 75W. Upper level southerly
wind flow is to the east of the trough. Upper level northerly wind
flow is between the trough and 82W. An upper level ridge is along
83W/84W.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 11N67W, the remnant of BRET.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 11N
to 13N between 66W and 68W.

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond
NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 06N to 10N between 73W and 79W
from Colombia to eastern Panama. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 78W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.54 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, 0.17 in Curacao, and 0.14 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level southerly wind flow is moving across the area. The
upper level inverted trough is along 75W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana:
VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of southerly wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center will
approach Hispaniola from the east, and move across Hispaniola
during at least the first half of day two. A secondary ridge will
move across Hispaniola, from north to south, during the second
half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SE
wind flow will move across the area during the first 1.5 days of
the 48-hour forecast. Expect NE wind flow for the rest of the
time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that easterly wind
flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola
will be on the southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean
ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough cyclonic circulation center is about 375 nm
to the ESE of Bermuda. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 27N to 32N between 56W and 62W. Rainshowers are possible also
from 20N to 30N between 62W and 72W.

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 625 nm to the NW of the Canary Islands, to
20N33W. A surface trough is along 30N24W 27N28W 25N33W.
Rainshowers are possible in broken to overcast low level and
middle level clouds that are to the northwest and north of the
line that passes through 32N12W to 20N30W 15N45W and 15N60W.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 36N48W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean 18N northward
from 38W westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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