[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 201433
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat
elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret
produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of
Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity
is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring
only to the north of the center.  The intensity forecast remains
unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward
a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an
upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely
degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not
sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models.

Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of
the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18
kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the
Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this
same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC
track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 11.6N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 12.4N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 13.2N  70.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 14.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 14.4N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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