[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 200853
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and
Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding
features.  The structure of the cyclone continues to be
characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so
the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the
CDO.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory,
which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB.  The
intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before.  No
significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the
circulation interacts with Venezuela today.  In 24 hours or so, a
weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly
shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea.
The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days.  The
official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity
model consensus, IVCN.

The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now
around 290/18 kt.  There continues to be little change to the track
forecast philosophy.  The flow on the southern side of a
well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on
a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days.
The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS
solutions and is close to the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 10.6N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 11.5N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 12.4N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 13.3N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 13.6N  76.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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