[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
14N25W to 07N25W, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 24W and 27W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends
from 13N34W to 06N34W, moving westward at about 20 kt. This wave
is embedded in 700 mb troughing between 29W and 37W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 31W and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
14N46W to 07N48W, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. This
wave is associated with a maximum poleward extent in moisture in
the region, and a notable inverted 700 mb trough between about 44W
and 55W. Isolated moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between
43W and 50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis extending from
18N67W to 09N67W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is
embedded in 700 mb troughing between 64W and 70W. Dry air and
subsidence in the wave environment is inhibiting deep convection.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean south of 17N along 81W
has been drifting westward the past few days. This wave is
associated with 700 mb troughing between 77W and 82W. The wave is
also interacting with the Monsoon Trough over the SW Caribbean to
support scattered moderate convection south of 13N and west of
75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of west Africa near 15N17W to 10N24W to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N36W to 10N46W, and resumes west of a tropical wave near
11N48W to 09N62W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical
waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N,
east of 22W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis between 50W and 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Favorable lift for convection due to an upper trough over the
northwest Gulf and Texas is interacting with a moist environment
over the central and eastern Gulf to support areas of showers with
embedded scattered thunderstorms west of 94W. A surface trough
extending from 24N95W to 18N94W is helping to enhance the shower
and thunderstorm activity to the east of the trough axis over the
Bay of Campeche. High pressure over the Atlantic has an axis that
extends north of the basin supporting mainly moderate southeast
winds, except strong and gusty in and near thunderstorms. Over the
next 24 hours showers and thunderstorms will continue over much
of the basin, increasing in coverage over the western Gulf, and
decreasing in coverage over the southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please see the
tropical waves section for more details. The pressure gradient
between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures associated with
the Monsoon Trough supports moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds over the majority of the Caribbean basin today. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical wave and Monsoon Trough,
scattered thunderstorms are north of 16N between 70W and 78W
associated with a weak upper low. Over the next 24 hours the
tropical wave over the southwest Caribbean will drift west
supporting ongoing convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

A weak upper low moving across the area will support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the southern
portion of the island this afternoon and early evening. Drier
conditions are expected tonight, with another round of showers and
thunderstorms over the southern portion on Tuesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. An upper trough to the west of Florida
is supporting scattered thunderstorms just east of north Florida
north of 27N and west of 78W. A surface trough extends from 29N50W
to 21N58W with no deep convection noted. A 1018 mb low is
centered near 30N37W with a dissipating stationary front extending
from the low to 26N40W to 29N49W. No deep convection is noted.
High pressure centered south of the Azores dominates the remainder
of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours a
surface trough will develop offshore north Florida and will
support ongoing showers and thunderstorms. The stationary front
over the central Atlantic will dissipate to a surface trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net