[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the far east Atlantic with axis
from 14N23W to 07N24W. Isolated showers are observed in the
wave's environment mostly related to the presence of the Monsoon
Trough from 06N-10N and east of 22W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
13N32W to 06N32W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. This wave
is embedded in deep moisture and inverted 700 mb troughing between
30W and 35W. Some African dust surrounds the wave. Isolated
showers are near the wave's axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
14N45W to 07N46W, moving westward at about 15-20 kt. This wave is
at the leading edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture,
and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model fields. Isolated
showers are observed near the wave's axis along 10N.

A tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean. Its axis extends
from 19N62W to 08N62W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave shows up
pretty well in the TPW animation and coincides with a 700 mb
inverted trough. The wave has produced a few showers across the
islands.

A tropical wave is drifting westward across the southwest
Caribbean and extends from 17N80W to 08N80W. The wave combined
with the Monsoon Trough is helping to induce clusters of moderate
to strong convection south of 11N between 76W-81W affecting parts
of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of west Africa near 18N16W to 10N23W, then resumes from 09N25W to
08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 08N42W, them resumes west
of a tropical wave at 08N48W to 06N57W. Aside of the convection
described in the section above with the tropical wave near Africa,
isolated showers are observed along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 23N95W to 19N93W. Scatterometer
data indicate gentle to moderate winds east of the trough axis
and mainly light winds ahead of it. The proximity of T.D. Three-E
currently located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
southern portion of the trough south of 20N between 90W-95W. A
diffluent flow aloft between an upper-level trough located over
the western Gulf and an anticyclone situated over the northwest
Caribbean continues to support cloudiness and isolated showers
across the east Gulf east of 90W. Abundant moisture will persist
across the Gulf region today as a moist and humid southerly wind
flow prevails. High pressure will build west across Gulf in the
wake of the trough through in the evening hours today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details. Latest scatterometer
data provided observations of moderate to fresh trades across
much of the area, with fresh to locally strong winds near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and also over the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate southeast winds were noted
across the northwest Caribbean, mainly north 16N and west of 85W.
High pressure located north of the area combined with lower pressures
along the Monsoon Trough over the southwest Caribbean will
maintain fresh to strongtrade winds across the basin today, with
the strongest winds across the south-central Caribbean, southwest
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient will relax
some during mid week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure
is expected to develop over the southwest Caribbean by mid week,
and shift gradually northwest through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low spinning over eastern Puerto Rico is producing
a dry mid to upper northerly flow over the island. Limit shower
activity is expected across the island today, with isolated
showers or thunderstorms in association with local effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the basin. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface
trough persists east of Florida and extends from 31N70W to
29N74W. Convection continues to diminish in association with this
trough. To the east, another surface trough extends from 29N48W to
21N57W. A 1018 mb surface low is located near 29N37W with a
stationary front extending from the low to 30N34W to 27N29W to
29N25W. A weakening stationary front extends from the low to
28N46W. No deep convection is associated to these features. The
remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located near 32N52W.
The high pressure will remain nearly stationary during the next 24
hours. The trough in the central Atlantic will move westward
today, and will dissipate later tonight. The low is forecast by
the computer models to remain nearly stationary over the next 24
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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