[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N19W to 05N20W, moving west at 5 kt. Unfavorable wind
shear and Saharan dry air hinder convection north of 11N.
Scattered heavy showers are in the southern wave environment from
04N-11N E of 22W where CIRA LPW show abundant low level moisture.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N44W to 03N45W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Saharan dry air and dust are in the northern wave
environment, which is limiting convection to scattered showers
from 03N-08N between 40W-50W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from
14N56W to 05N57W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
CIRA LPW show moderate low level moisture in the wave environment
with large patches of dry air. The wave is under diffluent flow
aloft, which support isolated showers from 06N-11N between 54W-
60W.

A tropical is in the southwest Caribbean Sea with axis extending
from 16N80W to 08N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. CIRA LPW show moderate moisture with patches of dry air at
the lower levels. Upper level diffluence aloft support scattered
to isolated showers from 10N-15N between 74W-78W. This wave is
forecast to reach the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua by early
Saturday morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across inland Africa. The ITCZ begins
west of a tropical wave near 09N21W to 07N31W to 06N43W...then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N47W and continues to
06N57W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side
of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is across south Florida and extends across the
SE Gulf from 25N81W to 24N87W where it starts dissipating. Isolated
showers are within 60 nm either side of the dissipating boundary.
Diffluence aloft between the upper trough that support the front
and ridging across the central Caribbean support isolated showers
across the Florida straits. The front will remain stationary
through tonight and then will weaken into a surface trough
early Saturday before dissipating Sunday. Weak high pressure
covers the remainder basin in the wake of the front, which
currently provide light to gentle NE-E flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level diffluence between the trough that support a frontal
boundary N of the area and a ridge over the central Caribbean
continue to support a line of heavy showers and tstms as well as
gusty winds in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from
22N84W to inland Honduras near 14N88W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are S of 21N W of 82W. A tropical wave is in the SW
Caribbean waters and supports scattered to isolated showers in
this region. See the tropical waves section for further details.
Scatterometer data provide observations of mainly moderate to
locally fresh trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted across
the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected over
the south-central Caribbean tonight and will continue over the
Gulf of Honduras through Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will combine with moisture in the region to produce cloudiness
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A cold front extends from 30N74W to a
1010 mb low near 29N77W from which a stationary continues SW to
27N80W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are within 210 nm east
of the frontal boundary, including the northern Bahamas. Fresh to
strong SW winds and scattered showers and tstms will prevail SE of
the front through Saturday. The remainder of the Atlantic is
under the influence of a ridge, anchored by three 1021 mb high
pressure centers at 27N52W, 27N42W and 30N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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