[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N18W to 05N18W, moving west at 5 kt. Unfavorable wind
shear and Saharan dry air hinder convection north of 10N.
Scattered heavy showers are in the southern wave environment from
05N-07N between 16W and 20W where CIRA LPW show abundant low level
moisture.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 11N44W to 03N45W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Saharan dry air and dust are in the wave environment, which
is limiting convection to isolated showers from 03N-07N between
41W-49W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from
13N55W to 04N56W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
CIRA LPW show moderate low level moisture in the wave environment
with large patches of dry air. The wave is under diffluent flow
aloft, which support scattered showers from 05N-10N between 50W-
56W and isolated showers from 56W-60W.

A tropical is in the central Caribbean Sea with axis extending
from 19N76W to 11N77W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. CIRA LPW show moderate moisture with patches of dry air at
the lower levels. Upper level diffluence aloft support scattered
to isolated showers from 11N-16N between 74W-80W. This wave is
forecast to cross 80W by Friday evening, likely reaching the
Atlantic coast of Nicaragua by early Saturday morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
to 09N16W. The ITCZ begins near 09N20W to 07N34W to 06N44W...then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N46W and continues to
06N55W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between
21W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Former cold front has stalled across south Florida and extends
across the SE Gulf from 25N81W to 23N87W with isolated showers
within 60 nm either side of it. Diffluence aloft between the upper
trough that support the front and ridging across the central
Caribbean continue to support scattered showers across the Florida
straits. The front will remain stationary through Friday night
and then will weaken into a surface trough Saturday before
dissipating Sunday. Weak high pressure covers the remainder basin
in the wake of the front, which currently provide gentle NE flow.
A surface trough has moved from the NW Caribbean into the Yucatan
Peninsula supporting showers inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level diffluence between the trough that support a frontal
boundary N of the area and a ridge over the central Caribbean
continue to support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms N
of 18N W of 79W and numerous heavy showers and tstms in the Gulf
of Honduras S of 17W. Fresh to strong winds are also in the Gulf
of Honduras with potential gusty winds. A tropical wave is moving
into SW Caribbean waters and supports scattered to isolated
showers in this region. See the tropical waves section for further
details. Scatterometer data provide observations of mainly
moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the eastern and central
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also
noted across the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds are
expected over the south-central Caribbean Friday night and will
continue over the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will combine with moisture in the region to produce cloudiness
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A cold front extends from 30N75W to
ta 1010 mb low near 29N78W from which a stationary continues SW to
27N80W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 210 nm east of the
frontal boundary, including the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong
SW winds and scattered showers and tstms will prevail SE of the
front through Saturday. The remainder of the Atlantic is under
the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure
located near 27N44W. A new high pressure center is forecast to
develop along the ridge axis near 28N55W in about 18 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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