[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the west coast of Africa. Its axis
extends from 15N16W to 06N16W. The north end of the wave is still
east of Dakar Senegal based on surface observations. The wave is
moving west at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moist area. A 700
mb trough is also noted. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N-11N between 13W-19W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N36W to 03N39W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of mainly unfavorable wind shear. Saharan dry air and dust
are in its environment. A 700 mb trough is also noted. Convection
is confined to the ITCZ axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N52W to 04N53W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and is being affected by
Saharan dry air intrusion into its environment. A well defined
700 mb trough is noted. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
10N between 51W-54W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean extending from
19N70W to 10N71W, moving west at 20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a
well defined moisture plume. A 700 mb tough is noted along 74W.
Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is inland over Venezuela from 05N-11N
between 70W-75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over W Africa east of 15N15W. The
ITCZ is W of a tropical wave and extends from 10N18W to 07N37W,
then resumes west of another tropical wave near 06N40W, and
continues to the coast of South America near 04N52W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely
scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 09N between 30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a 1007 mb low is centered W of Orlando Florida
near 28N82W. A cold front extends SW from the low to the central
Gulf near 25N89W. Isolated moderate convection is in the warm
sector E of the front over central and south Florida, the Straits
of Florida, and W Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the southern Bay of Campeche. In the upper
levels, a trough axis extends from N Georgia near 35N85W to the
Bay of Campeche near 20N94W. Upper level diffluence is E of the
trough axis enhancing convection over the Straits of Florida, and
W Cuba. Expect the surface low to move to the W Atlantic near
29N77W in 24 hours with convection. Also expect showers and
convection to remain over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba over
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. A 1011
mb low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean N of 15N
and W of 80W. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 15N and W of 75W. In the upper levels, upper level
diffluence is over the NW Caribbean W of 80W, and also over the E
Caribbean E of 68W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over
the Windward Islands mostly due to upper level diffluence. Expect
over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W over the
central Caribbean. Also expect scattered showers and convection
to persist over the W Caribbean and Central America.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers prevail over the island due to the tropical
wave. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three more tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please
refer to the waves section above for details. A cold front is over
the W Atlantic from 31N79W to the low over central Florida near
28N82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic E of the front to 74W, and N of 23N. A large 1023 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 29N35W producing fair weather. Of
note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the W
Atlantic significantly enhancing convection. Expect the convection
over the W Atlantic to persist for the next 24 hours as the front
moves E and extends from 31N75W to 29N77W to S Florida near
27N80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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