[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080945
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
545 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is coming off the west coast of Africa. Its axis
extends from 16N15W to 06N15W. Upper level divergence support
scattered heavy showers and tstms east of the wave axis from
05N-10N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 11N35W to 02N36W, moving west at 5 kt within the last 24
hours. Saharan dry air and dust are in the wave environment N of
08N as well as unfavorable wind shear. Middle level diffluence
and abundant moisture associated with the ITCZ support numerous
heavy showers from 04N-08N between 32W-41W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from
12N50W to 03N51W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
CIRA LPW imagery show abundant low level moisture associated with
the wave, which along with upper level divergence support
scattered to isolated showers from 07N-12N between 46W-52W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea with axis
extending from 19N68W to inland Venezuela near 10N70W, moving
west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Unfavorable wind shear and
deep layer dry air in the region inhibit convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 08N25W to
06N34W...then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N38W and
continues to 07N49W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level low near West Virginia extends a trough
S-SE to a broad base over the NW Caribbean, which continue to
support a 1005 mb low over the Florida Big Bend adjacent waters
near 29N83W. From the low, a cold front extends SW along 25N86W
to 24N91W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the low center
and inland Florida east of the low. A diffluent environment aloft
between the upper trough and a ridge that covers portions of the
NW and central Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms and
gusty winds across the Florida straits. The cold front will move
to central Florida today where it will stall before weakening to a
surface trough Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface trough formerly over the Yucatan Peninsula moved to
the NW Caribbean where it extends from 22N84W SW to a 1009 mb low
over Belize. Diffluent flow aloft between an upper ridge in the
central Caribbean and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico support
numerous heavy showers, tstms and gusty winds S of 22N W of 84W.
Convection in this area is forecast to persist through Friday.
Similar convection is over the coastal waters between Panama and
Colombia associated with a 1009 mb near 10N76W from which the
EPAC monsoon trough extends westward to 11N80W to northern Costa
Rica and into the Pacific ocean. Scattered to isolated showers
and tstms are elsewhere in the SW basin S of 13N associated with
the monsoon. Otherwise, a tropical wave is in the central basin,
however it lacks convection. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves
Section for more details. Scatterometer data provide observations
of mainly moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean. Moderate SE flow is over the NW Caribbean on the SW
periphery of a ridge that entersthe basin through eastern Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave moves across the Island today, however
unfavorable wind shear and deep layer dry air across the region
hinder convection at the time. Model guidance indicate the
development of showers across Hispaniola tonight and Friday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.
Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is providing scattered
showers and tstms across the Florida straits, the Grand Bahama
Bank and the SW North Atlc waters N of 22N W of 72W. High
pressure of 1022 mb located near 30N38W extends a ridge SW
through the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba into the Caribbean Sea.
This system dominates most of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front
located just north of area W of 70W, and across northern Florida
will sink slowly south today reaching near 30N77W to Cape
Canaveral tonight. Fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers
with embedded thunderstorms are expected SE of the front. The
remainder of the area will continue under the influence of the
above mentioned ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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