[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours
that follow the forecast that is valid until 05/1200 UTC,
consists of: the persistence of N or NE near gale or gale
continuing in: AGADIR, and between the islands of CANARIAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered strong
rainshowers from 04N to 08N between 14W and 18W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers from 09N to 12N between 48W and 51W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough. No significant deep
convective precipitation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 09N17W and 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W to
05N35W 04N44W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 90 nm to 150 nm on either side of 06N20W
04N34W 06N46W 08N53W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...and from the NW CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. An upper level
ridge extends from the Gulf of Honduras, across Cuba and the
Bahamas, to 27N76W and 25N69W in the Atlantic Ocean. A surface
trough extends from 26N93W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that
is near 21N93W, to SW Guatemala. Rain has been covering nearly
the same areas for the last few days in a row, from Guatemala into
the eastern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other
rainshowers are to the east of 95W in the Gulf of Mexico, inland
in Mexico and Guatemala, and to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N52W 20N67W in the Atlantic Ocean. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from Cuba at 80W to eastern
coastal Honduras.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, and KEIR.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR from Victoria to Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson,
in Sugar Land and in parts of the Houston metropolitan area and
surrounding communities, including patches of LIFR, such as at
the IAH airport. Rainshowers and thunder in Beaumont/Port Arthur.
LOUISIANA: MVFR and rain and thunder in the Lake Charles
metropolitan area. ALABAMA: light rain in Fort Rucker. FLORIDA:
light rain and spotty LIFR/MVFR from Perry westward.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough extends from 32N52W in the Atlantic Ocean
to 20N61W, across Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, to 08N74W in
Colombia. A 71W/72W tropical wave from 19N southward also is
moving through the area. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are within 300 nm on either side of the
line 32N44W 17N56W 10N62W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata:
VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Northerly wind flow will move across Hispaniola
during day two. A ridge will be extending from the Gulf of
Honduras to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with
an anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours. An east-to-west oriented ridge
will extend from the Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 65W from 26N beyond 32N. The
trough supports a stationary front that passes through 32N63W to
31N66W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 30N northward from 50W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N09W, across the Canary
Islands, to a 22N33W cyclonic circulation center, to 10N34W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N
northward between Africa and 60W, and from 20N northward between
60W and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure
center that is near 34N33W, through 29N48W, 27N58W 26N61W, to the
eastern coast of Florida near 29N81W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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