[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours
that follow the forecast that is valid until 05/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence of N or NE near gale or gale in:
AGADIR, TARFAYA, and between the islands of CANARIAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/18W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered strong
rainshowers from 02N to 11N between 09W and 16W, and from 07N to
09N between 16W and 19W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers from 07N to 10N between 44W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough. Earlier Hispaniola
rainshowers have dissipated.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough is along 08N19W 05N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N25W to 04N36W 04N48W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either
side of 06N20W 04N35W 06N46W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...and from the NW CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. An upper level
ridge extends from the Gulf of Honduras, across Cuba and the
Bahamas, to 27N76W and 25N69W in the Atlantic Ocean. A surface
trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near
21N93W, to 25N95W. Rain has been covering nearly the same areas
for the last few days in a row, from Guatemala into the eastern
half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Scattered
to numerous strong, now, in the eastern half of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other
rainshowers are to the east of 95W in the Gulf of Mexico, and to
the NW of the line that passes through 32N53W 20N68W in the
Atlantic Ocean. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 16N northward from 83W westward.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH, KVBS, and KVKY.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR from Sugar Land to the IAH airport, and in Beaumont/
Port Arthur. Light rain at the IAH airport. Rain and thunder have
ended for the moment, from Tomball to Huntsville. LOUISIANA:
rain that was being observed on the southern side of Lake
Pontchartrain earlier, has dissipated already. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR
in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Natchez.
light rain in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: moderate rain in Gulf Shores.
FLORIDA: rain and LIFR/MVFR in the westernmost sections of the
Florida Panhandle. light rain at the Tampa International Airport,
and in Sarasota, in Punta Gorda. Earlier rainin the Tampa/St.
Petersburg metropolitan area has ended for the moment. MVFR in
the Key West metropolitan area.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough extends from 32N52W in the Atlantic Ocean
to 20N61W, across Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, to 08N74W in
Colombia. A 70W/71W tropical wave from 19N southward also is
moving through the area. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are within 300 nm on either side of the
line 30N47W 17N56W 10N62W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Northerly wind flow will move across Hispaniola
during day two. A ridge will be extending from the Gulf of
Honduras to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with
an anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours. An east-to-west oriented ridge
will extend from the Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N68W to 28N68W. The trough
supports a stationary front that passes across Bermuda, to 31N67W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 30N northward between 54W and 70W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N09W, across the Canary
Islands, to 27N23W, to a 20N33W cyclonic circulation center, to
10N34W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N
northward between Africa and 60W, and from 20N northward between
60W and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure
center that is near 34N32W, through 32N38W, 28N52W 26N61W, to the
eastern coast of Florida near 28N80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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