[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale-force winds are forecast over the METEO-FRANCE zones
of AGADIR, Canarias, and Tarfaya during the next 24 hours. Please
refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N48W to 01N48W, moving west at 10 kt. Abundant moisture
prevails in this wave's environment as noted in TPW imagery.
700 mb analysis also shows a distinct trough axis. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N-09N between 45W-48W. Isolated
showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N69W to 06N69W, moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows
moderate moisture associated with this wave. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted over Hispaniola from 18N-20N
between 70W-72W. The remainder of the wave axis is void of
convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
12N16W to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 03N47W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 02N-06N between 01W-12W, and from 05N-09N
between 15W-19W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
02N-07N between 20W-38W. Another segment of the monsoon trough
extends from a 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near
08N74W to Costa Rica near 08N84W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm of this trough axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 03/2100 UTC, a 1008 mb low is centered over the Bay of
Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered moderate convection is over the
Bay of Campeche, and the Yucatan Peninsula from 19N-23N between
87W-93W. Further N, clusters of scattered moderate convection are
inland over Texas, Louisiana, S Mississippi, and S Alabama. In
the upper levels, a ridge axis extends from N Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula with considerable upper level moisture and
cloudiness being advected from the EPAC to the Gulf of Mexico.
Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf, and Florida from
22N-29N between 80W-90W moving E. Expect precipitation to persist
over the Gulf for the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean, and Cuba. These
showers are being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of the
upper ridge axis. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
Hispaniola. See above. Furthermore, the monsoon trough is
producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward
Islands, and the Windward Islands E of 64W mostly due to upper
level diffluence. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the
Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.
Also of note in the upper levels, a patch of subsidence is over
the central Caribbean between 72W- 82W suppressing convection.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted over Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 70W-72W due to a
tropical wave. Expect more showers and thunderstorms to advect
over the island over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Clusters of widely scattered moderate convection are over the W
Atlantic and the Bahamas from 25N-29N between 72W-80W mostly due
to upper level diffluence. The tail end of a cold front is also over
the W Atlantic from 31N68W to 29N71W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front. A large 1029 mb high is centered over
the Azores near 38N35W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from the
high to 28N60W. A tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.
Expect the convection over the W Atlantic to persist for the next
24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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