[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast over the
AGADIR during the next 24 hours and the Outlook for the 24 hours
that follow consists of the persistence of northeast near-gale in
AGADIR and TARFAYA, with threat of locally gale winds.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N47W to 01N47W, moving west at 10 kt. Abundant moisture
prevails in this wave's environment as noted in TPW imagery.
Isolated showers are observed along the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 18N66W to 01N67W, moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows
moderate moisture associated with this wave. Scattered moderate
to convection is observed east of the wave's axis affecting the
Leeward and Windward Islands as well as their adjacent waters
between 61W-67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
12N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 04N43W.
Besides the convection associated with the Caribbean tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 17W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb surface low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near
20N95W. A surface trough extends from the low to 24N96W. Another
surface trough extends from 30N93W to 23N96W. These features
combined with a diffluent flow aloft are supporting cloudiness
with scattered moderate convection across most of the basin mainly east
of 93W, with strongest activity near the low pressure center. A
surface trough was analyzed over the Florida peninsula from 28N83W
to 29N81W. Scattered showers are observed over the peninsula
south of the trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
easterly winds across the basin. The diffluence aloft will move
east during the next 24 hours shifting the rainfall potential wit
the far east Gulf waters and Florida peninsula. The surface low
will move slowly northeast with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the east Caribbean. Please refer
to the section above for details. Aside of the convection related
to this wave, scattered moderate convection prevails across Costa
Rica and Panama as the monsoon trough extends along Central
America. Gentle to moderate trades are noted in scatterometer data
across most of the basin except within 90 nm north of Colombia,
where locally fresh winds were depicted this morning. These
conditions will pulse each night through the next few days. Expect
over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving
west with convection. Expect little change elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to advect over the area
during the next 24 hours due to the approaching tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the west
Atlantic from 25N-31N between 60W-80W mostly due to upper-level
diffluence. A tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A 1030 mb
high is centered over the east Atlantic near 38N25W. This area of
high pressure extends across the whole basin. Expect the convection
over the west Atlantic to persist for the weekend. Little change
is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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