[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N43W to 00N44W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb with small
patches of dry air as shown by CIRA TPW imagery. Convection near
the wave axis is limited.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N60W to 02N61W, moving W at 15-20 kt. CIRA TPW imagery show
a moist low level environment associated with this wave. 700 mb
analysis shows a distinct trough axis. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 09N-19N between 57W-63W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 09N13W to 07N19W. The intertropical convergence zone axis
extends from 07N19W to 05N30W to 05N43W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave at 05N45W and continues to the coast of South
America near 05N52W. Besides the convection associated with the
Caribbean tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from
05N-07N between 19W-35W. Another segment of the monsoon trough
extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near
09N74W to the coast of S Nicaragua near 12N84W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 02/2100 UTC, a 1007 mb low the remnants of post-tropical
cyclone Beatriz, is centered over S Mexico near Vera Cruz at
18N95W. Another 1009 mb low has formed over the SW Gulf of Mexico
near 22N95W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are over the SW Gulf, the Yucatan Peninsula, and S
Mexico, from 16N-23N between 89W-93W. In the upper levels, a
ridge axis extends from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with
considerable upper level moisture and cloudiness being advected
from the EPAC to the Gulf of Mexico. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are over the NE Gulf, and Florida from 25N-31N
between 80W-90W. Localized urban flooding is possible over
Florida. Expect this precipitation pattern to persist for the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The outer rainbands of post-tropical cyclone Beatriz are over the
NW Caribbean. This precipitation is also being enhanced by upper
level diffluence E of the upper ridge axis. A tropical wave is
over the E Caribbean producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection. See above. Furthermore, the monsoon trough is
producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the
Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.
Also of note in the upper levels, a patch of subsidence is over
the central Caribbean between 67W-80W suppressing convection.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with
convection. Expect little change elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers linger over Hispaniola. Expect more
scattered showers and thunderstorms to advect over Hispaniola
Saturday due to the approaching tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the W Atlantic
from 25N-31N between 71W-80W mostly due to upper level diffluence.
A tropical waves is over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section for more details. A 1021 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 31N60W. A surface trough, the
remnants of a stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
30N52W to 24N62W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the
trough. Another surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N36W
to 26N39W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough.
Expect the convection over the W Atlantic to persist for the
weekend. Also expect the surface troughs to dissipate over the
next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net