[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N44W to 01N43W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb with small
patches of dry air as shown by CIRA TPW imagery. Convection near
the wave axis is limited.

A tropical wave is in the western Atlantic with axis extending
from near Barbados at 13N60W to northern Brazil near 01N58W,
moving W at 15 kt. CIRA TPW imagery show a very moist low level
environment associated with this wave. 700 mb analysis shows a
distinct trough axis. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 10N to 14N between 57W and 61W.

A tropical wave that was over the western Caribbean and Central
America has moved into the E Pacific basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 10N14W to 07N18W, with another segment extending from 1008 mb
low pressure over northern Colombia to the coast of Nicaragua near
13N85W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from
07N18W to 06N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 04N to 10N between 12W and 16W, within 180 nm N
of a line from 05N26W to 01N34W to 02N41W, and from 06N to 10N
between 38W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm SW of the monsoon trough W of 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moisture associated with post-tropical cyclone Beatriz, along with
other deep tropical moisture originating from the tropical E
Pacific ocean continues to spread across the Gulf of Mexico, SE
Mexico including the Yucatan, Belize and across the Florida
peninsula. A tropical jet will continue to pump this moisture up
across the same general area into the weekend, with the potential
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A pair of surface troughs
is in the Gulf, with a northern trough extending from the Florida
panhandle to the Texas coastal waters, and the other from 25N96W
to SE Mexico near 17N93W. Mainly moderate to fresh E to SE flow
will prevail through the weekend, except locally strong in the
central part where the pressure gradient E and SE of the troughs
will be slightly tighter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the deep tropical moisture over the NW Caribbean
nations, very dry air is in place W of 68W. Tropical moisture
spreads across the area E of 68W ahead of an approaching tropical
wave, and around an upper level anticyclone positioned over
northern South America. Fresh to strong trades will continue to
pulse in the S central Caribbean and also in the vicinity of the
Gulf of Honduras through the weekend, with mainly moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Convection is limited into the early afternoon, however daytime
heating may result in the development of isolated showers and
thunderstorms through sunset. Similar conditions are likely on
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N59W. A
surface trough, the remnants of a stationary front, is over the
central Atlantic from 31N50W to 22N64W. Scattered showers are
within 30-45 nm of the trough. Another trough extends from 31N35W
to 25N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.
Expect the surface troughs to dissipate through Saturday. Another
surface trough extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico across northern
Florida to 31N77W with associated scattered moderate convection
within 120-180 nm SE of the trough axis. This troughing will
linger through the weekend. Otherwise, broad ridging blankets the
remainder of the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net