[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence or threat of NORTH near gale or gale
in AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/39W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in the
ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/56W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong from 15N
southward between 50W and 60W.

A tropical wave is inland in Nicaragua, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 05N40W
and 06N54W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward, not counting the precipitation that may be
directly related to the tropical waves.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the
Florida Big Bend. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Upper level diffluent wind flow is near the surface trough.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on
either side of the line from 25N86W to 23N90W to 14N91W in
southern Guatemala. Precipitation has been in this area for the
last few days.

Numerous strong rainshowers are in the southern part of Mexico,
between 95W and 99W, just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Tropical Storm
Beatriz is inland.

A weak surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, to 27N90W, to the Mexico coast near 23N97W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHQI and KEIR.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR in Port Lavaca, Bay City, and in Galveston.
LOUISIANA: rain in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area.
IFR in Lafayette and in New Iberia. MISSISSIPPI: light rain in
Natchez and in Pascagoula. Alabama: MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA:
light rain in Marianna. MVFR in Marathon Key, and in the Key West
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough is along 26N67W, extends from a 24N67W
cyclonic circulation center, through the Mona Passage and across
Puerto Rico, to 15N69W in the Caribbean Sea, to Lake Maracaibo in
NW Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from NW Venezuela to 25N in the
Atlantic Ocean between 56W and 73W. Widely scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers in Colombia from 05N to 08N between 73W and
76W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.68 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.23 in Guadeloupe.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo:
VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto
Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that N wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The N wind flow
during day one and early into day two will be related to the
trough. The northerly wind flow for the rest of day two will be
related to a ridge that will be moving eastward, from Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that cyclonic wind flow, with a cyclonic circulation center,
will span the area during day one. Expect broad cyclonic wind,
as parts of a ridge try to move into the westernmost sections of
Hispaniola early in day two, followed by some NW wind flow, in
order to complete most of the first half of day two. The second
half of day two will consist of anticyclonic wind flow. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through the Canary Islands, to 21N29W
and 10N35W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

A surface trough remains from the cold front of 24 hours ago. The
trough passes through 32N50W to 30N51W and 24N61W. Rainshowers
are possible from 23N northward between 47W and 80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center has become cut off near
26N52W. It is surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence
for a radius of 120 nm. This center is between the Canary Islands-
to-10N35W trough, and the trough that is passing through the
Mona Passage.

A surface ridge is along 35N20W to 30N30W to 28N48W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west of
the 32N50W-to-24N61W surface trough. A 1023 mb high pressure
center is near 30N62W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Meteo-France high seas forecast has a moderate gale over
Casablanca, Agadir, and Tarfaya zones. Please refer to the METEO-
FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/
METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N36W to 01N38W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb with small
patches of dry air as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. Widely scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 02N-10N between
30W-36W.

A tropical wave is in the western Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N53W to 01N56W, moving W at 15-20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery
show a very moist low level environment associated with this wave.
700 mb analysis shows a distinct trough axis. Widely scattered
moderate convection from 02N-11N between 50W-57W.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from
13N83W across Costa Rica to the EPAC waters near 03N83W, moving W
at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is mainly in a moderate
moist environment. 700 mb analysis shows a distinct trough axis,
especially over the EPAC. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
10N14W and continues to 08N20W where the ITCZ begins and then
extends to 06N36W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical near
06N39W and continues to 06N53W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-12N between
10W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The outer rainbands of T.S Beatriz, centered over the EPAC near
15.5N 96.8W at 01/2100Z, are over S Mexico and the Bay of Campeche
S of 22N. Patches of scattered moderate convection are noted.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the Gulf of Mexico from 23N-30N between 83W-93W. 5-15 kt SE
surface flow is over the E Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge axis
extends from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with considerable
upper level moisture and cloudiness. Expect return flow to
prevail across the E Gulf through Saturday. Expect a surface low
to form over the Bay of Campeche Saturday, then move NW towards
southern Texas Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The outer rainbands of T.S Beatriz are also over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong
convection are noted. A tropical wave is over the SW Caribbean and
Costa Rica. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over Colombia and W Venezuela. Elsewhere,
isolated moderate convection is over Cuba, and Haiti. 15-25 kt
tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is
over the W Caribbean W of 75W. An upper level trough is over the E
Caribbean. Upper level moisture is over the NW Caribbean, the far
SW Caribbean, and the Windward Islands. A Patch of subsidence is
over the central Caribbean. Expect convection to advect over the
Windward Islands over the next 24 hours with the approach of a
tropical wave. Expect little change elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated moderate convection lingers over Haiti. Expect
more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to form over
Hispaniola Friday afternoon and evening during maximum heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic waters. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A 1023 mb
high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N62W. A surface
trough, the remnants of a stationary front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N50W to 24N62W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm
of the trough. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
32N26W. Expect the surface trough to dissipate over the next 24
hours, and for surface ridging to prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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