[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315
 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Meteo-France high seas forecast has a moderate gale over
Casablanca, Agadir, and Tarfaya zones. Please refer to the METEO-
FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/
METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N36W to 01N38W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb with small
patches of dry air as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. Widely scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 02N-10N between
30W-36W.

A tropical wave is in the western Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N53W to 01N56W, moving W at 15-20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery
show a very moist low level environment associated with this wave.
700 mb analysis shows a distinct trough axis. Widely scattered
moderate convection from 02N-11N between 50W-57W.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from
13N83W across Costa Rica to the EPAC waters near 03N83W, moving W
at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is mainly in a moderate
moist environment. 700 mb analysis shows a distinct trough axis,
especially over the EPAC. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
10N14W and continues to 08N20W where the ITCZ begins and then
extends to 06N36W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical near
06N39W and continues to 06N53W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-12N between
10W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The outer rainbands of T.S Beatriz, centered over the EPAC near
15.5N 96.8W at 01/2100Z, are over S Mexico and the Bay of Campeche
S of 22N. Patches of scattered moderate convection are noted.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the Gulf of Mexico from 23N-30N between 83W-93W. 5-15 kt SE
surface flow is over the E Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge axis
extends from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with considerable
upper level moisture and cloudiness. Expect return flow to
prevail across the E Gulf through Saturday. Expect a surface low
to form over the Bay of Campeche Saturday, then move NW towards
southern Texas Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The outer rainbands of T.S Beatriz are also over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong
convection are noted. A tropical wave is over the SW Caribbean and
Costa Rica. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over Colombia and W Venezuela. Elsewhere,
isolated moderate convection is over Cuba, and Haiti. 15-25 kt
tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is
over the W Caribbean W of 75W. An upper level trough is over the E
Caribbean. Upper level moisture is over the NW Caribbean, the far
SW Caribbean, and the Windward Islands. A Patch of subsidence is
over the central Caribbean. Expect convection to advect over the
Windward Islands over the next 24 hours with the approach of a
tropical wave. Expect little change elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated moderate convection lingers over Haiti. Expect
more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to form over
Hispaniola Friday afternoon and evening during maximum heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic waters. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A 1023 mb
high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N62W. A surface
trough, the remnants of a stationary front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N50W to 24N62W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm
of the trough. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
32N26W. Expect the surface trough to dissipate over the next 24
hours, and for surface ridging to prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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