[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291706
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1206 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front extends across the northern Yucatan peninusla to the
Chivela Pass near 18N94W with strong surface ridging extending
southward from NE Mexico along the coast to 17N95W. A strengthened
pressure gradient between these two features is generating near
gale to gale force northerly winds across the SW Gulf of Mexico
waters that are expected to persist through this evening until
30/0000 UTC. Thereafter the pressure gradient is expected to relax
gradually and result in winds diminishing by Monday. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N16W to
01N22W to the Equator near 40W. Isolated moderate convection is S
of 04N between 14W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N
between 32W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Aside from the Special Features near gale to gale force winds
occurring across portions of the SW Gulf waters...the associated
frontal boundary remains analyzed from the Florida Straits as a
stationary front into a weak 1016 mb low centered near 22N85W then
as a cold front across the Yucatan peninsula to the Chivela Pass
near 18N94W. While moderate to fresh NW to N winds prevail outside
of the stronger SW Gulf winds mentioned above...scattered to
numerous showers are occurring generally along and north of the
front across much of the south-central and eastern Gulf this
afternoon. Regional Doppler radar also indicates this includes
much of the Florida peninsula S of a Jacksonville to Cedar Key
line. Farther NW...skies begin to gradually clear as a surface
ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered across NE Mexico near
25N100W extends a ridge axis E-NE to the Tampa Bay region focused
on a 1022 mb high centered near 28N82W. The ridging will remain
anchored across eastern Mexico through Monday and then move
eastward Monday night into Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front is analyzed along the northern coast of
western Cuba into a 1016 mb low centered near 22N85W then as a
cold front SW across the northern Yucatan peninsula providing
focus for isolated showers and possible isolated tstms across the
NW Caribbean northwest of a line from 23N80W to 16N87W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean basin remains fairly
tranquil with only a few passing isolated showers possible across
the north-central waters focused in the vicinity of Hispaniola and
Jamaica...and along the coast of Nicaragua. These light showers
are embedded within moderate to fresh trade wind flow...with
slightly stronger trades occurring in close proximity to the coast
of Colombia...generally S of 13N between 71W-77W. The cold front
will continue progressing eastward across the NW Caribbean
providing fresh to strong N-NE winds upon passage through Monday
morning.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers extend across the island this afternoon due to
low-level moisture convergence on moderate to fresh E-SE winds.
Little change is expected during the next 24-36 hours. By Tuesday
an approaching frontal boundary will lie to the NW of the island
and bring increased probability of isolated to scattered
precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over
the eastern CONUS with an embedded shortwave trough axis extending
from 32N81W to a broad base over the NW Gulf of Mexico waters. The
troughing supports a stationary front analyzed from 26N73W W-SW to
the Yucatan Channel region and a forming cold front analyzed from
32N75W SW to the Florida peninsula near Jacksonville. Between
these two fronts...within southwesterly flow aloft...plenty of
cloudiness and scattered to numerous showers are occurring
generally N of 24N W of 70W. This forming cold front will
generate fresh to strong SW to W winds N of 28N through tonight
and become fresh to strong NW winds across much of the SW North
Atlc as the fronts merge and move east. Farther east...across the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...a surface ridge
prevails anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 29N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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