[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 22N85W, to a 1016 mb low pressure
center that is near 22N91W, and a cold front extends from the low
pressure center to 18N91W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds, and
sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 18 feet, to the west of a line
from 23N90W to 18N94W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the equator along 20W.
The ITCZ continues to 01S22W, and 02N37W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
08N13W 08N40W 10N60W, southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Comparatively
drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water vapor imagery, from
the line 27N82W 25N90W 23N98W southward.

A stationary front continues from Andros Island in the Bahamas,
across NW Cuba, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near
22N91W. A cold front extends from the low pressure center to the
border of Mexico and Guatemala near 17N91W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers span the open waters
of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough passes through N Florida
near 30N83W, into the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W, to 27N86W.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is in NE Mexico, near 25N99W. One
ridge extends from the 1030 mb high pressure center,
southeastward, along the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present, in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

A second surface ridge extends from the NE Mexico 1030 mb high
pressure center that is near 25N99W, to 28N94W and 29N88W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: light rain from Brooksville
to the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area, to Sarasota, in
Fort Myers and Naples, at the NAS in Key West.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is covering the Caribbean Sea to the east
of the line that runs from the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern
Colombia beyond Puerto Rico.

Middle level-to-upper level trough extends from Nicaragua to
14N74W, beyond 19N67W, just to the north of Puerto Rico.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, across the entire area.

No significant 24-HOUR rainfall amounts have been reported, for
the period ending at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
a TRACE in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

SE wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, is moving across Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: IFR with fog in each city.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. An upper level
trough will be close to Puerto Rico, and then even to the east of
Puerto Rico, during the next two days. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that SE-to-S wind flow will move across the area
during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge. SE wind flow will
move across the area during day two, with a weak trough moving
into the area from the west. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that SE wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with an
Atlantic Ocean-to-SE Cuba/Windward Passage ridge. An inverted
trough will develop across Hispaniola during day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N58W, to 27N72W. A
stationary front continues from 27N72W, across Andros Island in
the Bahamas, across NW Cuba, to 22N92W in the Gulf of Mexico, to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 22N91W. Upper level W
and SW wind flow is moving on top of the area of the dissipating
cold front. The wind flow eventually becomes anticyclonic more
downstream, toward the SE. An upper level anticyclonic circulation
center is near 24N56W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible to the NW of the line that passes through 20N66W, beyond
32N46W.

A deep layer trough is to the west of Africa, from 500 nm on the
northern end to 1000 nm on the southern end. The trough supports
a cold front, that extends from a 1020 mb low pressure center that
is near 33N23W, to 29N25W and 27N30W. A surface trough continues
from 27N30W to 24N36W and 22N42W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 28N to 30N between 20W and 22W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere within 240 nm to 360 nm to the SE of the
line 29N25W 24N40W 20N60W.

A surface ridge, that is to the east of the frontal boundary,
extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 34N13W,
to the Canary Islands, beyond 32N15W.

A surface ridge, that is to the west of the frontal boundary,
passes through 32N31W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is
near 27N44W, 26N51W, 25N64W, to the eastern half of Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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