[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gales...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N59W and
continues SSW to 25N60W to the Mona Passage near 19N68W. Gale
force S to SW winds are N of 25N within 180 nm E of the cold
front over the SW North Atlantic, with seas 9-13 ft. In
addition, a surface trough is analyzed W of the cold front from
32N64W to 26N65W. Gale force NW winds are N of 28N W of trough
to 70W, with seas 11-16 ft. The first gale is forecast to
persist beyond 0600 UTC FRI JAN 27. The second gale is forecast
to last until 0600 UTC THU JAN 26. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico this evening.
Furthermore, on 1800 UTC THU JAN 26, the cold front will extend
from 29N83W to 25N91W to 22N96W to 18.5N95W. Gale force NW winds
will then be S of 21N within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz
Mexico, with seas 8-10 ft. This gale is expected to last six
hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N16W to 02N30W to 01N40W to the South American coast near
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between
20W-36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 02S-06N between 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered N of central Cuba near 23N79W with 5-
10 kt anticyclonic winds extending into the SE Gulf of Mexico.
In contrast, the W Gulf W of 90W has 20-25 kt southerly return
flow. The entire Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, a
broad ridge with axis along 88W is producing mostly westerly
flow with very strong subsidence. Expect a cold front that is
presently over central Texas to reach the Texas coast this
evening with 25 kt northerly winds behind the front. Expect a
gale Thu evening within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz Mexico.
See above. The cold front will then extend from central Florida
to the Bay of Campeche with showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from the
Mona Passage near 19N68W to the SW Caribbean near 11N79W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. 10-15 kt NE
winds are over the NW Caribbean W of the trough. 10-20 kt S
winds are over the E Caribbean E of the trough. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are inland over N Colombia and N Venezuela. In
the upper levels, a ridge with axis along 88W is producing
mostly westerly flow with very strong subsidence. Expect the
tail-end of a cold front, moving to the E, to traverse Puerto
Rico and the Leeward Islands with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

The proximity of the front and trough over the Mona Passage has
resulted in broken to overcast low clouds with scattered showers
over E Hispaniola. The cold front is expected to continue
eastward today before high pressure builds in across the region
with drier conditions expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N59W to 25N60W to the
Mona Passage near 19N68W. Gales are E and W of front. See above.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of front N of
24N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm E of front S
of 24N. Broken low clouds are over the W Atlantic W of front to
75W. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 28N43W. A
cold front extends from 34N26W to 30N38W to 32N44W. A 1025 mb
high is over the E Atlantic N of the Canary Islands near 32N13W.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W
Atlantic N of 20N between 50W-70W supporting the W Atlantic
surface front. Expect the W Atlantic cold front in 24 hours to
extend from 32N47W to the Leeward Islands near 19N60W with
convection. Also expect the E Atlantic cold front to dip SE and
reach the Canary Islands in 24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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