[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N61W and
continues SSW to 25N62W to the NE coast of Hispaniola near
19N70W. Gale force SSW winds are N of 25N within 120 NM east of
the cold front over the SW North Atlc. In addition...a surface
trough is analyzed W of the cold front from 32N65W to 27N66W.
Gale force WNW winds are N of 30N between 66W-70W. Both gale
areas are forecast to persist until 0000 UTC FRI JAN 27. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N18W to 02N30W to 01N43W to the South American coast near
01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 35W-
42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-06N between 42W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico near
24N85W with 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds. The W Gulf W of 90W has
20-25 kt southerly return flow. The entire Gulf has fair
weather. In the upper levels, a broad ridge with axis along 88W
is producing mostly westerly flow with very strong subsidence.
Expect a cold front that is presently over central Texas to
reach the Texas coast this afternoon with 25 kt northerly winds
behind the front. Expect the front to extend from S Louisiana to
Tampico Mexico in 24 hours with showers predominately over
Louisiana. The remainder of the Gulf E of front will then have
10-15 kt southerly return flow and continued fair weather.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from NE
Hispaniola near 19N70W to the SW Caribbean near 11N80W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. 10-15 kt NE
winds are over the NW Caribbean W of the trough. 10-20 kt S
winds are over the E Caribbean E of the trough. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are inland over N Colombia and N Venezuela. In
the upper levels, a ridge with axis along 88W is producing
mostly westerly flow with very strong subsidence. Expect the
tail-end of a cold front, moving to the E, to traverse Puerto
Rico and the Leeward Islands with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

The proximity of the front and trough over Hispaniola has
resulted in broken to overcast low clouds with scattered showers
over the island. The cold front is expected to continue eastward
over the island tonight and early Wed before high pressure
builds in across the region with drier conditions expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N61W to 25N62W to the
NE coast of Hispaniola near 19N70W. Gales are E and W of front.
See above. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of
front N of 25N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm E
of front S of 25N. Broken low clouds are over the W Atlantic W
of front to 75W. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 29N46W. A cold front extends just N of the area from 34N30W
to 32N45W. A 1026 mb high is over the E Atlantic N of the Canary
Islands near 31N17W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N between 50W-70W
supporting the W Atlantic surface front. Expect the W Atlantic
cold front in 24 hours to extend from 32N50W to the Leeward
Islands near 18N61W with convection. Also expect the E Atlantic
cold front to dip SE and reach the Canary Islands in 24 hours
with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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