[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...

Atlantic cold front is from 31N61W to 20N72W. In 18 hours, cold
front will be from 31N55W TO 27N55W to 18N65W. Expect on 0000
UTC Tue Jan 10, N of 29N within 300 nm W of front, NE winds 30-
35 KT with seas 16-22 ft.  Expect winds to diminish below gale
on 1800 UTC Tue Jan 10. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Caribbean cold front from 20N72W to 15N83W. In 12 hours, cold
front will be from 18N65W TO 13N83W. Expect on 1800 UTC Mon Jan
09, within 45 nm of line from 19N75W to 15N78W NE winds 25-35 KT
with seas 10-12 ft. Expect winds to diminish below gale on 1200
UTC Tue Jan 10. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N10W to
04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N13W to 01N30W to the coast of South America near 03S44W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-04N between 02W-15W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-11N between 13W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1042 mb high is centered over Virginia near 37N79W producing
surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt E to SE winds
are over the Gulf. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds remains
over most of the Gulf, however, a warming return flow pattern
has now started. In the upper levels, the base of a broad upper
level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 78W.
Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect over the next
24-48 hours for the surface warming trend to continue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is over the NW Caribbean from Hispaniola at 20N72W
to NE Nicaragua at 15N83W. Scattered showers are Hispaniola, and
over Honduras and N Nicaragua. 20-30 kt N winds are N of the
front. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the NW
Caribbean NW of the front. Moderate to fresh trades over the
remainder of the Caribbean, with strongest winds over the south
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered
showers are also off the coast of Costa Rica from 09N-11N
between 81W-84W. Radar imagery shows showers W of Puerto Rico.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the E Caribbean with axis
along 65W. Upper level moisture is over the front and over SW
Caribbean, while strong subsidence is over the far NE Caribbean.
Expect the front in 24 hours to drift E and extend from E
Hispaniola to S Nicaragua with convection over the SW Caribbean.
Also see the special features section above about a future gale.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to tradewind flow.
Prefrontal showers are also over W Hispaniola. Expect
showers to persist for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to the Windward
Passage at 20N74W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60 nm of the front.  Broken to overcast cold air
stratocumulus clouds are over the W Atlantic NW of front.
Surface ridging is over the central Atlantic. A 1012 mb low is
centered near 29N28W. A surface trough extends from the low to
19N32W. Expect, the cold front to extend in 24 hours from 31N55W
to E Hispaniola at 20N69W with showers. Expect the E Atlantic
low to move SW to 25N38W with showers. See special features
section above about a future gale.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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