[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...

Atlantic cold front is from 31N63W to 20N74W. In 48 hours, cold
front will be from 31N53W TO 20N62W. Expect on 0000 UTC Wed Jan
11, N of 29N W of front to 60W, NE winds 30-35 KT with seas 14-
20 ft. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Caribbean cold front from 20N74W to 15.5N84W. In 18 hours, cold
front will be from 18N74W TO 10N83W. Expect on 1800 UTC Mon Jan
09, from 16N-19N within 60 nm W of front NE winds 25-35 KT with
seas 10-12 ft. Expect winds to diminish below gale on 1200 UTC
TUE JAN 10. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N13W to 01N30W to the coast of South America near 02S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-02N between 00W-14W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-09N
between 16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1040 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N87W producing
10-20 kt anticyclonic winds over the N Gulf, and 15-25 kt NE to
E winds over the S Gulf S of 24N. Broken cold air stratocumulus
clouds remains over most of the Gulf. Cold air advection
persists over the E Gulf E of 90W, while warming return flow has
started over the NW Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a
broad upper level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis
along 78W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in
24 hours for the entire Gulf to have at the surface E to SE
return flow, with a warming trend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is over the NW Caribbean from the Windward Passage
at 20N74W to E Honduras at 15.5N84W. Scattered showers are over
the Windward Passage, and along the coast of Honduras. 25-30 kt
N winds are N of the front. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds
are over the NW Caribbean NW of the front. High pressure over
the central Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia support
moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the Caribbean,
with strongest winds over the south central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Isolated
moderate convection is also off the coast of Costa Rica from 09N-
11N between 81W-84W. Radar imagery shows showers W of Puerto
Rico. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the E Caribbean with
axis along 65W. Upper level moisture is over the front and over
SW Caribbean, while strong subsidence is over the far NE
Caribbean. Expect the front in 24 hours to drift E and extend
from E Hispaniola to S Nicaragua with convection heaviest over
SW Caribbean. Also see the special features section above about
a future gale.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to tradewind flow.
Prefrontal showers are also over W Hispaniola. Expect
showers to persist for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to the Windward
Passage at 20N74W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60 nm of the front.  Broken to overcast cold air
stratocumulus clouds are over the W Atlantic NW of front.
Surface ridging is over the central Atlantic. A 1012 mb low is
centered near 29N28W. A surface trough extends from the low to
19N32W. Expect, the cold front to extend in 24 hours from 31N55W
to E Hispaniola at 20N69W with showers. Expect the E Atlantic
low to move SW to 25N38W with showers. See special features
section above about a future gale.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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