[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...

Atlantic cold front is from 31N68W to 22N78W. W of front NW
winds are 20 to 30 KT with frequent gusts to gale force N of the
Bahamas. Seas are 8 to 12 ft. Frequent gusts to gale force ends
in 18 hours on 0000 UTC MON JAN 09. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more
details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

Gulf of Mexico S of 21N W of 94W NW to N winds are 30 to 40 kt.
Seas are 15 to 23 ft. Elsewhere N to NE winds are 20 to 30 kt
with frequent gusts to gale force within 60 nm of coast of
Florida and Alabama. Seas are 8 to 15 ft. Gale conditions ends
in 12 hours on 1800 UTC MON JAN 09. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 01N31W to the coast of South America near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 00W-13W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-08N between 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front has exited the Gulf of Mexico. A
1043 mb high is centered over central Texas near 31N97W
producing NE winds over the Gulf. Gale winds are over the SW
Gulf. See special features above. Outside of gale areas, winds
are northerly 20-30 kt. Broken to overcast cold air
stratocumulus clouds are over the Gulf S of 29N. Strong cold air
advection is expected to persist for the next 42 hours. In the
upper levels, the base of a broad upper level trough is over the
Gulf of Mexico with axis along 83W. Strong subsidence is over
the entire Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Cold front has entered the NW Caribbean from central Cuba at
22N78W to the Gulf of Honduras at 16N89W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front. 25-30 kt N winds are N of the front.
High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over
Colombia support moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of
the Caribbean, with strongest winds over the south central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered
moderate convection is also off the coast of Nicaragua from 11N-
15N between 80W-84W. Radar imagery shows showers S and W of
Puerto Rico. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the E
Caribbean with axis along 65W. Upper level moisture is over the
front and over S Caribbean S of 16N, while strong subsidence is
over the far NE Caribbean. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to
extend from Haiti to NE Nicaragua with convection heaviest over
Honduras and Nicaragua.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to tradewind flow.
Expect prefrontal showers to also reach the island from
the W within 18 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front has entered the W Atlantic from
31N68W to central Cuba at 22N78W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. See special
features section above about frequent gusts to gale force.
Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the W
Atlantic NW of front. A 1028 mb high is centered near 33N44W
producing fair weather over much of the central Atlantic south
of 31N. A 1008 mb low is centered near 30N26W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 22N28W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 180 nm E of the low center and trough.
Expect, the cold front to extend in 24 hours from 31N60W to
Haiti at 20N72W with showers. Also expect the E Atlantic low to
move SW to 27N29W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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