[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...

Atlantic cold front is from 31N72W to 24N81W. W of front NW
winds are 20 to 30 KT with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas
are 8 to 12 ft N of 29N. Frequent gusts to gale force ends in 24
hours on 0000 UTC MON JAN 09. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

Gulf of Mexico cold front is SE of area. S of 21N W of 95W NW to
N winds are 30 to 40 kt. Seas are 15 to 23 ft. Elsewhere N to NE
winds are 20 to 30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force within
60 nm of coast of Florida and Alabama. Seas are 8 to 15 ft. Gale
conditions ends in 24 hours on 0000 UTC MON JAN 09. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N27W to 00N40W to the coast of South America near 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 06W-12W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 18W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Straits of Florida at
24N81W to N Belize at 18N88W. See special features above.
Outside of gale areas in the Gulf of Mexico winds are northerly
20-30 kt. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds are
over the Gulf S of 29N. Radar imagery shows lingering showers
over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. Strong cold air
advection is expected to persist for the next 48 hours. In the
upper levels, the base of a broad upper level trough is over the
Gulf of Mexico with axis along 83W. Upper level moisture is over
the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. Strong subsidence is over the
remainder of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Cold front has entered the NW Caribbean from W Cuba to N Belize
and Guatemala. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
20 kt N winds are N of the front. High pressure over the central
Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia support moderate to
fresh trades over the remainder of the Caribbean, with strongest
winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is inland over N
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered showers are also off the
coast of Nicaragua. Radar imagery also shows showers S of Puerto
Rico. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the E Caribbean with
axis along 65W. Upper level moisture is over the front and over
S Caribbean S of 16N, while strong subsidence is over the far NE
Caribbean. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from E
Cuba to Honduras with convection heaviest over Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry conditions are over the island. Expect prefrontal
showers to reach the island within 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front has entered the W Atlantic from
31N72W to the Straits of Florida at 24N81W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the front. See special features section
above about frequent gusts to gale force. A 1028 mb high is
centered near 34N44W producing fair weather over much of the
central Atlantic south of 31N. A 1007 mb low is centered near
29N25W. A surface trough extends from the low to 23N26W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm E of the
low center and trough. Expect, the cold front to extend in 24
hours from 31N63W to E Cuba with showers. Also expect the E
Atlantic low to move SW to 27N28W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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