[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 AM EST MON JAN 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14
feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, are present. These
conditions are forecast to last for 12 hours or so. Please read
the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast, later, for
the area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC, consists of:
persistence of SW gale in IRVING.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W 06N13W and 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
04N29W, and 01N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 04N to 05N between 47W and 50W. scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 06N southward between 30W and 40W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N between 40W and
53W. isolated moderate elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W
eastward, mostly from 02N to 05N between 10W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. This SW wind flow is part of larger-scale anticyclonic
wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean from
60W westward, and the entire Caribbean Sea. High level moisture
is to the west of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend,
to 25N88W, to the Mexico coast near 25N98W.

Low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 24N to 28N
between 85W and 90W, with the clouds moving northeastward.

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas to the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVOA and KDLP.

IFR: KBBF, KGHB, KGRY.

MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KVQT, KEIR, KSPR,
KATP, KMDJ, KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Weslaco. MVFR in Port Isabel. MVFR from Hebbronville
into the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains, to Victoria/Port
Lavaca/Palacios. LIFR at the NAS in Corpus Christi and Rockport.
IFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. MVFR from Galveston to
Beaumont/Port Arthur. LIFR in Jasper. Rain and thunder near Sugar
Land. IFR in Pearland, Ellington Field, and Houston Hobby Airport.
MVFR and thunder at the Houston Intercontinental Airport and in
Tomball. Rain and thunder for Conroe and Huntsville. LIFR in
Conroe. IFR in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: IFR in SW and south central
sections. LIFR in Patterson. IFR in Baton Rouge. LIFR in extreme SE
sections. IFR mostly/MVFR elsewhere completely surrounds Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in the southernmost/coastal
plains. MVFR in Natchez. IFR in McComb. LIFR in parts of the
Hattiesburg metropolitan area. ALABAMA: MVFR in Dothan and Ft.
Rucker. IFR in Evergreen. rain and MVFR in some sections of the
southernmost/coastal plains. FLORIDA: LIFR in Mary Esther and
Valparaiso. MVFR and rain elsewhere westward. LIFR/IFR in parts of
the Panama City metropolitan area. IFR in Marianna and
Apalachicola. MVFR in Tallahassee and Cross City. IFR in Perry.
MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport and in St. Petersburg. IFR
in Punta Gorda. MVFR in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from northern sections of Colombia to
the Yucatan Peninsula. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

Middle level-to-upper level SE wind flow is moving through the
Caribbean Sea. This SE wind flow is due to the fact that the
Caribbean Sea is on the southern side of the larger-scale
anticyclonic wind flow that is spanning the Gulf of Mexico, the
Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 63W from 10N to 16N. Convective
precipitation: Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 60W and 70W.

A second surface trough is along 77W/78W from 15N to 19N, across
Jamaica. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 15N to 20N between 75W and 85W.

Convective precipitation: scattered to broken low level clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 15N southward between 78W and
Nicaragua/Costa Rica. The precipitation is occurring near an area
of weak upper level cyclonic wind flow and upper level diffluent
wind flow.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. The wind flow
from 350 mb to 800 mb is from the southeast. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the
entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. a brief rainshower
in Punta Cana appeared and ended during the last observation.
Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a Colombia-to-
Nicaragua-to-Yucatan Peninsula ridge will bring NW wind flow
across the area for the first 36 hours of the 48-hour forecast
cycle. A trough will move across the area during the last 12
hours, bringing cyclonic wind flow to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the
area for the first 24 hours. The second 24 hours will consist of
wind flow from: the NE, cyclonic wind flow, NW wind flow, and
cyclonic wind flow with an arriving trough.
anticyclonic circulation center that will move around Cuba will
bring anticyclonic wind flow across the area during the first 12
hours of the 48-hour forecast, followed by mostly NE wind flow,
with a bit more anticyclonic wind flow right at the end of the
48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola, during the
first 24 hours. The next 24 hours will consist of: E-to-SE wind
flow, and then cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through the east central Atlantic
Ocean. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through
32N34W to 29N40W and 26N50W. The front becomes stationary from
26N50W to 23N63W, to the SE Bahamas near 23N73W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible along and to the north of
the frontal boundary.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between Africa and 30W. This trough supports a cold front that
passes just to the east of the Madeira Archipelago, to 29N20W and
25N30W. The cold front is marked by a cloud boundary, with
possible rainshowers along it and behind it, to the north and
northwest of the line that passes through 32N12W 27N20W 20N40W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW
of the cold front/stationary front. A 1030 mb high pressure
center is near 33N57W. A second 1030 mb high pressure center is
near 32N64W near Bermuda.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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