[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EST MON JAN 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14
feet from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, are imminent. These
conditions are forecast to last for 12 hours or so. Please read
the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC, consists of:
cyclonic near gale or gale, in IRVING.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through southern coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from
05N17W to 02N40W, 02N44W, and to the equator along 50W at the
coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong from 04N to 05N between 47W and 50W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between 30W and
45W. isolated moderate elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W
eastward, mostly from 07N southward from 30W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. This SW wind flow is part of larger-scale anticyclonic
wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean from
60W westward, and the entire Caribbean Sea. High level moisture
is to the west of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend,
to 24N92W, to the Mexico coast near 24N98W.

A surface trough is along the western edge of the Yucatan
Peninsula, along 89W/90W, from 20N to 23N. Earlier precipitation
has ended. Low level clouds are from the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula to 25N between 88W and 90W, moving northward.

A second surface trough is along the Mexico coast from 20N to 24N.
No significant deep precipitation is apparent in satellite images.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVOA.

IFR: KGRY.

MVFR: KBBF, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGHB, KEIR,
KATP, KMDJ, KIKT, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: from IFR to MVFR, from east-to-west, in the Lower Rio
Grande Valley. LIFR to IFR to MVFR, from south-to-north, in the
middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. IFR from Beaumont/Port Arthur
to Jasper. MVFR in Pearland, Tomball, and Conroe. LOUISIANA: IFR
in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. LIFR in New
Iberia. IFR in Lafayette. LIFR in Galliano. IFR and light rain in
Boothville. IFR in Hammond. recent rain and thunder have ended
during the last few observations at sites that are around Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR and rain in the southernmost/
coastal plains. LIFR in Natchez. ALABAMA: rain and IFR from Dothan
to Ft. Rucker and Evergreen. rain and thunder, and MVFR or
better, in the southernmost/coastal plains. FLORIDA: MVFR to IFRto LIFR, and rain, from Marianna-to-Panama City westward.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from northern sections of Colombia to
the Yucatan Peninsula. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

Middle level-to-upper level SE wind flow is moving through the
Caribbean Sea. This SE wind flow is due to the fact that the
Caribbean Sea is on the southern side of the larger-scale
anticyclonic wind flow that is spanning the Gulf of Mexico, the
Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 10N to 16N. Convective
precipitation: Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 10N to 16N between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean
and 68W in the Caribbean Sea.

A second surface trough is along 75W/76W from 13N to 17N, just to
the east of Jamaica. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 14N to 19N between 75W and 82W.

Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong in the SE part of Nicaragua. The precipitation is occurring
near an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow and upper level
diffluent wind flow.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. The wind flow
from 350 mb to 800 mb is from the southeast. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the
entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a Colombia-to-
Nicaragua-to-Yucatan Peninsula ridge will bring NW wind flow
across the area for the first 36 hours of the 48-hour forecast
cycle. A trough will move across the area during the last 12
hours, bringing cyclonic wind flow to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the
area for the first 24 hours. The second 24 hours will consist of
wind flow from: the NE, cyclonic wind flow, NW wind flow, and
cyclonic wind flow with an arriving trough.
anticyclonic circulation center that will move around Cuba will
bring anticyclonic wind flow across the area during the first 12
hours of the 48-hour forecast, followed by mostly NE wind flow,
with a bit more anticyclonic wind flow right at the end of the
48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola, during the
first 24 hours. The next 24 hours will consist of: E-to-SE wind
flow, and then cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through the east central Atlantic
Ocean. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through
32N36W to 29N40W and 26N50W. The front becomes stationary from
26N50W to 23N62W, to the SE Bahamas near 23N72W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible along and to the north of
the fronts.

A deep layer trough passes through 32N22W to 24N27W and 20N30W.
This trough supports a cold front that passes through the Madeira
Archipelago, to 29N20W and 26N30W. The cold front is marked by a
cloud boundary, with possible rainshowers along it and behind it,
to the north of the line that passes through 32N14W 23N33W 27N33W
30N35W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW
of the cold front/stationary front. A 1031 mb high pressure center
is near 34N57W. A second 1031 mb high pressure center is near
32N64W near Bermuda.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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