[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 28.1N 64.8W at 23/1200 UTC
or about 250 nm S of Bermuda moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 27N-32N between 59W-67W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 21.8N 35.7W at 23/0900 UTC
or about 745 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands and about 1070 nm
SSW of the Azores moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N
between 29W-36W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N91W to 19N90W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over portions of
Central America between 88W-94W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 12N-17N between 88W-95W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-20N between
81W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N23W to 09N31W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-13N
between 17W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is noted over the SE CONUS with axis
extending from over Georgia S-SW to a broad base over the south-
central Gulf waters near 24N89W. While the troughing supports a
1012 mb low centered along coastal South Carolina...the Gulf basin
is under the influence of weak surface ridging extending from a
1017 mb high centered near 29N88W with axis extending SW to the
east-central coast of Mexico near 20N97W. As a result...skies
remain mostly fair this morning...however a few isolated showers
and possible tstms are occurring from 23N-27N between 89W-
96W...and from 23N-26N between 81W-85W. Otherwise...gentle to
occasional moderate E-SE winds prevail and are expected through
Sunday as surface ridging holds in place across the NE and north-
central Gulf. Early next week...SE winds will increase slightly
across the western Gulf ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Monday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near
19N74W and extends a trough axis westward to over 19N80W and
eastward to over Hispaniola. Most middle to upper level moisture
is noted over the western Caribbean where scattered showers and
tstms are occurring in association with a tropical wave along 91W.
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 14N-20N between
81W-89W...including inland portions of Belize...Honduras...and
the Yucatan peninsula. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh
trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally
remaining across south-central portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low is centered over the island and continues to
provide an overall favorable environment for precipitation and
convection through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad surface troughing is focused along the coastline of the
Carolinas this morning with a stationary front extending from
33N79W S-SW to the Florida coast near Jacksonville. A surface
trough extends from near Jacksonville to the Tampa Bay region and
into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring S of 31N W of 78W in association with these two
boundaries. Farther east...Tropical Storm Karl is expected to
track generally northward along 65W through late Friday and sweep
northeastward to the east of Bermuda through early Saturday.
Besides Tropical Storm Lisa in the tropical eastern Atlc...a
surface trough is analyzed within the southern periphery of a
central Atlc ridge from 13N47W to 21N50W. Isolated showers are
occurring within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...
the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered
near 32N44W and a 1025 mb high centered SSE of the Azores near
32N25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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