[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 27.3N 64.3W at 23/0600 UTC
or about 300 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 25N-31N between 59W-67W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 21.3N 35.2W at 23/0300 UTC
or about 710 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands and about 1085 nm
SSW of the Azores moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-25N
between 28W-35W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 08N88W to 19N88W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over portions of
Central America between 85W-91W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 13N-21N between 88W-93W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N-19N between
82W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N20W to 08N29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 08N-15N between 12W-18W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03N-10N between 17W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is noted over the SE CONUS with axis
extending from over Georgia S-SW to a broad base over the south-
central Gulf waters near 24N89W. While the troughing supports a
1012 mb low centered along coastal South Carolina...the Gulf basin
is under the influence of weak surface ridging extending from
across the Florida panhandle SW to the east-central coast of
Mexico near 21N97W. As a result...skies remain mostly fair this
evening...however a few isolated showers and possible tstms are
occurring across southern portions of the basin S of 25N between
82W-95W. In addition...scattered showers and tstms continue across
the eastern Bay of Campeche S of 21N between 89W-92W in
association with the thermal troughing across the Yucatan
peninsula. Otherwise...gentle to occasional moderate E-SE winds
prevail and are expected through Sunday as surface ridging holds
in place across the NE and north-central Gulf. Early next
week...SE winds will increase slightly across the western Gulf
ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coasts by Monday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near
19N75W and extends a trough axis westward to over 18N83W and ENE
to over Hispaniola. Most middle to upper level moisture is noted
over the island of Hispaniola this evening where scattered showers
and tstms are occurring between 71W-75W. Otherwise...another area
of moisture and cloudiness is focused W of 80W in association with
a tropical wave along 89W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring from 13N-18N between 81W-89W...including inland portions
of Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring elsewhere S of 16N between 76W-86W. Likely impacts as
this tropical wave passes across Central America tonight will be
localized flooding and possible mud slides where the heavier
precipitation occurs. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh
trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally
remaining across south-central portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and tstms continue this evening across western
portions of the island including the adjacent coastal waters...
however this activity is expected to diminish through the
overnight hours. An upper level low is centered over the island
and continues to provide an overall favorable environment for
precipitation and convection through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad surface troughing is focused along the coastline of the
Carolinas this morning with a stationary front extending from
33N79W S-SW to the FLorida coast near Cape Canaveral. A pre-
frontal surface trough is analyzed to the east of the front from
31N78W to western Grand Bahama Island to near Key Largo Florida.
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 30N W of 78W in
association with these two boundaries. Farther east...Tropical
Storm Karl is expected to track generally northward along 65W
through late Friday and sweep northeastward to the east of Bermuda
through early Saturday. Besides Tropical Storm Lisa in the
tropical eastern Atlc...a surface trough is analyzed within the
southern periphery of a central Atlc ridge from 13N47W to 19N48W.
Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the
boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025
mb high centered near 33N45W and a 1026 mb high centered SSE of
the Azores near 33N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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