[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 160232
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

Just like it occurred last night, a surge of strong upper-level
westerly winds removed the convection from the center of Julia again
tonight. Satellite images show that the circulation is still
vigorous, and it is generously assumed that tropical-storm-force
winds are occuring well to the east of the center. On this basis,
the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt. The strong shear is forecast
to persist, and the most likely solution is for Julia to maintain
the same intensity for another 12 hours or so, and then gradually
decay as indicated in the previous NHC forecast. It is worth noting
that the SHIPS and LGEM models maintain Julia as tropical storm for
the next 3 days, but the given the strong shear predicted by these
models, their solution does not appear to be realistic.

The tight swirl of low clouds defining the center of Julia has been
moving slowly toward the east-southeast or 120 degrees at 4 kt.
However, the steering currents are expected to be weak, and the NHC
forecast calls for Julia to meander during the next 2 to 3 days. By
then, Julia is expected to be a remnant low, and probably will
begin to drift northeastward, embedded within the mid-latitude flow.
Since the steering currents are likely to be weak and poorly
defined, the track models are showing divergent solutions, varying
from northeast to southwest tracks, and some show no motion at all.
The discrepancy in the models increases the uncertainty of the NHC
track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 31.5N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 31.2N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 31.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 31.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 31.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 31.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z 32.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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