[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 152050
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Julia
and reported estimated surface winds of 35-40 kt from the SFMR
instrument in the northeast quadrant, along with a central pressure
of 1007 mb.  The maximum flight-level winds at 850 mb were 34 kt.
Based on a blend of the surface estimates and flight-level winds,
the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. The aircraft reported a
sharp trough extending to the east of the center, and the storm is
producing vigorous convective bursts near the center and along the
trough.

Julia continues to move generally eastward or 085/7, possibly due
to the reformation of the center caused by the convective bursts.
The track guidance continues to forecast that the cyclone will slow
its forward motion in the next 12 hours, after which it will move
very little through 72-96 hours.  Based on this premise, which so
far has not come to pass, the new forecast track will keep Julia
moving east for 12 hours and then show a loop from 12-96 hours. The
new forecast area of meandering is about 60 n mi east of that from
the previous forecast.

Julia is likely to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly
shear from 12-84 hours, and this is expected to cause a gradual
weakening during this time.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the
previous one in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant
low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours.  If Julia
survives the extended period of shear, the environment should become
more favorable after 84 hours, and the system could re-intensify as
forecast by the UKMET and Canadian models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 32.1N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 32.0N  76.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 31.8N  76.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 31.5N  76.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 31.5N  76.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 32.0N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z 32.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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