[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24N46W 19N48W 10N52W.
A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 19N.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within300
nm of the center in the northern semicircle, and from 14N to15N
between 48W and 50W. isolated moderate from 08N to 12Nbetween
50W and 53W. The current high seas forecast consists of gale-
force winds from 20N to 23.5N between 45W and 51W, and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet. Please read the high
seas forecast, that is listed under MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details. Precipitation that is associated with this system
has increased and become a little better organized during the
past several hours. It is likely that a tropical depression may
form during the early morning hours, or later today on Monday,
before upper level winds become less conducive for development.
The low pressure center is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward about 10 to 15 mph in the central Atlantic
Ocean during the next few days. The chance of formation is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19N23W 14N25W 09N26W.
This wave cuts across the Cabo Verde Islands. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 05N to 15N between
20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 13N
southward. Convective precipitation: embedded in the monsoon
trough.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N
southward. The wave cuts through Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 13N to 15N
between 81W and 83W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 80W
westward.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 18N16W, to 12N20W, to 10N30W and 09N38W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of 07N33W 08N36W 09N39W.
isolated moderate elsewhere from 03N to 12N between 30W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western two-thirds of
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the north central
Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
24N northward from 91w eastward. A 1014 mb low pressure center
is near 24N85W in the southeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. LOUISIANA: IFR in New Iberia and
Lafayette. light rain in Boothville. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR at the
Hattiesburg Public Airport. Rain during the last observations at
the Chain Municipal Airport. Heavy rain has ended for the moment
right along the coast of Mississippi. ALABAMA: light rain has
ended for the moment in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: Rain and thunder
in Tallahassee. Light rain in Perry.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
that is from 80W eastward. Much of the cyclonic wind flow has to
do with the 19N74W Haiti cyclonic circulation center. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.78 in Bermuda,
0.11 in Curacao and in Havana.

The monsoon trough is along 11N75W in northern Colombia, beyond
the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward from 75W
westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 19N74W, just to the west of
Haiti. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the
Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between 73W and 80W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: rainshowers
and thunder at 12/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
Barahona: rainshowers and thunder at 12/0000 UTC. Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Few cumulonimbus
clouds in La Romana. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.
Thunder has been reported in Puerto Plata in some of the last
observations.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that
cyclonic wind flow and a trough will cover the area for the next
48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the
next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that NE
wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48
hours, with a large-scale Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea
ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Atlantic
Ocean from Cuba northward from 70W westward, away from the
Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. A surface trough is
along 27N72W 24N74W 21N75W. Convective precipitation: Isolated
to widely scattered moderate from Cuba to 32N between 70W and
80W.

An upper level trough extends from 32N52W, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 26N56W, to a 22N64W
cyclonic circulation center, to a 19N74W cyclonic circulation
center that is just to the west of Haiti, to 12N78W in the
southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate within 360 nm to the northwest
of the line 27N54W 21N69W. isolated moderate in the Caribbean
Sea from 15N northward between 73W and 80W.

An upper level trough extends from a Canary Islands cyclonic
circulation center, to 20N29W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate from 25N to 28N between 15W and19W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 27N northward between Africa and the southeastern U.S.A.
coastal areas. One 1023 mb high pressure center is near 30N40W.
A second 1023 mb high pressure center is near 32N55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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