[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical wave extends from 23N44W through a 1009 mb low near
17N47W to 11N52W moving north-northwest near 15 kt over the past
24 hours. Gale force winds are occurring over the north
semicircle of the low. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details. Shower activity associated with this system has
increased and become a little better organized during the past
several hours, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
tonight or on Monday. There is a high chance of tropical
development over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NWS
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 150 nm east of the wave axis north of 17N
and within 150 nm west of the wave axis north of 20N. Clusters
of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within
300 nm east of the remainder of the wave axis.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends from
20N20W along 13N24W to 8N24W moving west-southwest 10 to 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough
based on the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery. No
associated deep convection.

Tropical wave southwest of the Capo Verde Islands extends along
30W from 6N-12N moving southwest near near 10 kt over the past
12 hours. Wave is to the west of a 700 mb trough based on the
global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 83W/84W from 10N-
20N moving west 5 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough based on the global models and is
embedded within a large area of moisture as seen on the Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Wave is also located beneath
northerly upper flow. No associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N17W and continues along 16N19W 12N22W 9N33W to
10N38W. The remainder of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ are
being disrupted by the low and wave in the Special Features.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30/45
nm of a line from 8N32W to 10N34W. Small clusters of scattered
moderate convection dot the area within 250 nm south and 120 nm
north of the monsoon trough between 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS dips south over the
Gulf of Mexico supporting a frontal boundary that remains inland
over the southeast CONUS. This front is generating scattered to
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across central
Georgia and Alabama to southern Mississippi and Louisiana.
These showers and thunderstorms are along the coastal waters of
Louisiana and along the Texas coast north of Galveston. A
surface trough extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N91W
along 27N90W to 24N90W with isolated showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm east of the trough. An upper
ridge is anchored over south Mexico near Veracruz extending a
ridge axis over the Yucatan peninsula then northeast across the
Florida peninsula into the west Atlantic. A weak 1014 mb low
remains in the southeast Gulf near 24N85W with isolated showers
and thunderstorms south of 26N between 82W-86W to over west Cuba
and into the Yucatan Channel. A weak surface ridge extends from
over the central CONUS into the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a
1021 mb high over central Texas and a stronger 1025 mb high over
Illinois. The surface ridge will shift north and merge with an
area of high pressure north of the area Monday. The 1014 mb low
will weaken to an open trough as it reaches the south/central
Gulf Monday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico covers the west Caribbean
west of 81W. An upper low is centered over Hispaniola extending
an upper trough west to 19N78W and covering the central
Caribbean. A second upper ridge, anchored in the east Atlantic
extends across the west Tropical Atlantic over the Windward
Islands to northwest Venezuela. This is creating a diffluent
environment across the west Caribbean to generate scattered to
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms inland over Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of a line from Hispaniola near 18N71W to
16N83W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the remainder of
the Caribbean west of 78W leaving the east Caribbean under
mostly clear skies this evening. The tropical wave will move
over Central America tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms have
developed over the island this evening. The upper low/trough
currently over the island will persist through midweek. This
could continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the island,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge axis extends from the Gulf of Mexico across the
Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral to near Wilmington, North
Carolina. A narrow upper trough extends through 32N77W to over
the Bahamas near 22N76W. A surface trough extends from the
Windward Passage near 20N74W across the southern Bahamas to
26N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from
the Bahamas to 30N between 71W-78W. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge north of 23N east of
75W anchored by a pair of 1023 mb highs near 32N44W and 33N55W.
The surface trough across the southeast Bahamas will move west-
northwest through the remainder of the Bahamas tonight through
Thursday. The tropical wave in the Special Features will move
northwestward for the next few days possibly as a tropical
cyclone.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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