[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 21N
southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
15N. The 06-hour forecast consists of a 1009 mb low pressure
center near 17N 47.5W...a possible tropical cyclone. Expect gale-
force winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet,
from 60 nm to 240 nm in the northern quadrant of the low center.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong from 06N to 22N between 40W and 55W.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development. It is
likely that a tropical depression may form later today or on
Monday. This feature is forecast to move northwestward to north-
northwestward in the central Atlantic Ocean. The chance of
formation through 48 hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 20N southward.
This position agrees with current satellite imagery. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
09N to 18N between Africa and 25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was added to the 11/0600 UTC
surface map analysis, along 27W/28W, in agreement with the
current satellite imagery. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 05N to 11N between 25W and 33W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, along the coast
of Central America. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 17N southward from 78W
westward to Central America.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 96W from 20N southward.
Convective precipitation: numerous strong is inland in Mexico,
and in the coastal waters, from 18N to 20N between 93W and 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Mauritania and Senegal, to 10N28W, to the 1009 mb low pressure
center that is along the 46W/47W tropical wave, continuing to
10N52W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 05N to 11N between 11W and 17W, and from
04N to 07N between 32W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the upper
south central Louisiana coast. Cyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico to the west of the line 29N90W 20N97W. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area.

A surface trough is along 91W/92W from 24N to 29N, in the
central Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 22N to 30N between 87W and 91W.

A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 24N84W in the southeastern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along the
Florida west coast near 28N, to the 1013 mb low center, to
23N85W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 20N in the northwestern corner of the
Caribbean Sea to 24N in the Gulf of Mexico between 80W and 87W.
Upper level winds are not favorable, and development of this
system is not expected. The low is forecast to weaken while it
moves westward to west-southwestward 5 to 10 mph into the
central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. Heavy rain in Robstown and at the Naval
Air Station in Corpus Christi. MVFR in Bay City. Lightning is
being reported near Rockport. LOUISIANA: IFR in Patterson. MVFR
in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA: light rain
at the Mobile Downtown General Airport. FLORIDA: MVFR at the
Tampa Executive Airport. Rain and thunder are close to Natchez.
Light rain is at the Key West Naval Air Station and at the
Key West International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
that is from 80W eastward. Much of the cyclonic wind flow has to
do with the 20N72W Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.34 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.19 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 10N between northern Colombia and
beyond northern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the southwestern
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Numerous
strong from 03N to 07N between the coast of Colombia and 80W
in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 20N72W.

A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 24N70W 20N71W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 21N to 24N between 70W and 72W. isolated moderate elsewhere
from 17N to 24N between 66W and 73W. There are no signs of a
surface circulation associated with this system. Conditions are
not conducive for development of this disturbance, while it
moves generally west-northwestward about 15 mph.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: rain and
thunder at 11/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: rain and thunder. Santiago: MVFR.
Puerto Plata: rain and thunder.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that
cyclonic wind flow will cover the area for day one and for day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB: the current cyclonic
circulation center is forecast to spread cyclonic wind flow
across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center moves westward during
day one. The cyclonic circulation center will reach the Windward
Passage, spreading southerly wind flow across the area for the
rest of day one. Day two will start with southerly wind flow,
switching to variable, from the northeast, and finally from the
southeast again. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that
the wind flow will be from the E and SE at the start of day one,
followed by NE wind flow. NE wind flow will span Hispaniola for
day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
Cuba northward from 70W westward, away from the 20N72W cyclonic
circulation center. A surface trough is along 78W from the
northwestern Bahamas northward. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from Cuba
northward between 70W and 80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N52W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N to 32N between 45W
and 62W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the area
of cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N23W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward
between 19W and 30W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 24N northward between 20W and 30W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward between Africa and the southeastern U.S.A.
coastal areas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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