[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 21N
southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
14.5N. The 12-hour forecast consists of a 1009 mb low pressure
center near 16.5N 47.5W...a possible tropical cyclone. Expect
gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet,
from 60 nm to 300 nm in the northern quadrant of the low center.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 07N to 201 between 37W and 54W. Environmental
conditions still are favorable for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or two while this disturbance moves toward
the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean. The chance of
formation through 48 hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
11N to 18N between Africa and 20W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from southeastern
Cuba southward to Panama. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 17N southward from 76W
westward.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 20N
southward. Convective precipitation: numerous strong is inland
in Mexico, in the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
and in the northwestern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 15N17W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is
near 11N21W, to 09N28W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center
that is along the 45W/46W tropical wave, continuing to 10N52W.
Convective precipitation: Scattered strong from 10N to 12N
between 20W and 23W, and from 05N to 07N between 31W and 36W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 04N to 13N.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the upper
Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico to the west
of the line 29N90W 20N97W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the rest of the area.

A surface trough is along 28N91W 25N90W 23N89W, in the central
Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
23N to 30N between 85W and 89W.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 24N84W in the southeastern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 22N to 24N from the Yucatan Channel eastward.
Upper level winds are not favorable for development, and the low
pressure center is forecast to weaken while it moves westward 5
to 10 mph into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two. The chance of formation through 48 hours is low.

A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 29N84W, in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. Earlier light rain was being observed
in Tomball. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Patterson and Galliano.
MISSISSIPPI: Rain and thunder are close to Natchez. Light rain
is at the Key West International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
that is from 80W eastward. Much of the cyclonic wind flow has to
do with the Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.34 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.19 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W, to 11N76W, beyond
northern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered strong
from 03N to 12N between 70W and 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 20N71W.

A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N67W 22N69W
20N71W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 16N to 24N between 60W and 74W. There are no signs
of a surface cyclonic circulation center. Conditions are not
expected to be conducive for significant development of this
system, while it moves generally west-northwestward about 15 mph.
The chance of formation through 48 hours is low.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: rain and
thunder. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings/few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling.
Scattered cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: rain and thunder.
Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings, and few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings, and few cumulonimbus
clouds, in each city.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that
cyclonic wind flow will cover the area for day one and for day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB: the current cyclonic
circulation center is forecast to spread cyclonic wind flow
across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center moves westward during
day one. The cyclonic circulation center will reach the Windward
Passage, spreading southerly wind flow across the area for the
rest of day one. Day two will start with southerly wind flow,
switching to variable, from the northeast, and finally from the
southeast again. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that
the wind flow will be from the E and SE at the start of day one,
followed by NE wind flow. NE wind flow will span Hispaniola for
day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N77W.
A surface trough is along 78W from the northwestern Bahamas
northward. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong from Cuba northward between 65W and 80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N25W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward
between 25W and 40W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 30N to 35N between 19W and 30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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