[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 102325
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving slowly northwestward.  Satellite imagery
indicates that the circulation has become better defined today, but
the associated thunderstorm has not become any better organized in
the past few hours.  Conditions are still favorable for a tropical
depression to form by during the next day or two while this
disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola
remains disorganized.  There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico remains devoid of thunderstorm activity.  Upper-level
winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to
weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph
into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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