[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
13N. The 30-hour forecast consist of a 1008 mb low pressure
center near 16N48W...a possible tropical cyclone. Expect gale-
force winds within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE
semicircle, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 07N to 20N between 36W and 50W, and from 06N to 11N
between 50W and 60W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for additional development It is likely that a
tropical depression may form during this weekend or early next
week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean during
the next several days. The chance of formation is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W from southeastern
Cuba southward to Panama. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 10N to 12N between the coast of Colombia and 79W.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 23N92W, across the
eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, along 93W/94W
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. No significant deep convective
precipitation.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 14N32W, to the 1010 mb low pressure
center that is along the 44W/45W tropical wave, to 08N50W.
Convective precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong from 07N
to 11N between the coast of Africa and 20W, and from 10N to 13N
between 20W and 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the middle
Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 90W eastward.

A surface trough is hugging the coast of western Florida. A 1012
mb low pressure center is in the Straits of Florida near 24N82W.
A surface trough extends from Lake Okeechobee, to the 1012 mb
low center, toward northwestern Cuba. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from the Florida Keys to
northwestern Cuba. Upper level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development, while this system moves
westward 5 to 10 mph into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next couple of days. Squalls and gusty winds are possible in
parts of the Florida Keys today on Saturday.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, into
the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. MVFR in Alice and in Tomball.  from
LOUISIANA to MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA: IFR In
Evergreen. Florida: MVFR near Milton. IFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport. Light rain in Marathon and at the Naval Air Station
in Key West, in the Florida Keys.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 65W/66W from 17N to 22N. A 1010 mb low
pressure center is near 20N along the trough. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is in the Mona Passage. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W eastward.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 16N to 26N between 60W and 70W. This precipitation pattern
is not showing any signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward about 15 mph. The chance of formation is low.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 72W westward.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...none.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W, beyond 10N85W in Costa Rica.
Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 10N to 11N
between 76W and 79W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level N wind flow covers Haiti. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Dominican Republic.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: not
available. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: not
available. Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago: MVFR, and few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata:
VFR/no ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB: the current
Mona Passage cyclonic circulation center is forecast to spread
cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center
moves westward during day one. The same cyclonic circulation
center will remain near Hispaniola during day two, spreading
more cyclonic wind flow across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind will cover Hispaniola during
day one, with a trough. More cyclonic wind flow is forecast for
Hispaniola during day two. An inverted trough will remain in the
area of Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
MB shows that SE wind flow will be moving across the area, for
the first 36 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. NE wind flow
will span Hispaniola for the last 12 hours of the time period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N77W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Cuba northward between
70W and the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. A surface trough is
along 31N65W 28N67W. A second surface trough is along 33N61W
30N62W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 18N in the northwestern part of the
Caribbean Sea,across Cuba northward to 32N, between 65W and the
southeastern coast of the U.S.A.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N50W.
Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the
area from 20N to 32N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is
along 32N50W 30N52W 28N53W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N29W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward
between 25W and 40W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 30N to 35N between 19W and 30W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 24N
northward between Africa and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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