[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100715 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

CORRECTED THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
13N. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong within 30 nm on
either side of 17N38W 17N42W 16N46W 14N47W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 06N to 20N between 34W and 50W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for
additional development It is likely that a tropical depression
may form this weekend or early next week while this disturbance
moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest
in the central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.
The chance of formation is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from the Windward
Passage southward to the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. No
significant deep convective precipitation.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave cuts across the northwestern
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond southwestern Guatemala.
Convective precipitation: remnant rainshowers and thunder from
21N southward between the Yucatan Peninsula and 92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 15N30W, to the 1010 mb low
pressure center that is at the southern end of the 44W/45W
tropical wave. Convective precipitation: Scattered to numerous
strong from 08N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 17W,
and from 10N to 13N between 20W and 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the middle
Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from the westernmost part of the Florida
Panhandle, into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near 20N97W.

A surface trough is hugging the coast of western Florida. A 1012
mb low pressure center is in the Straits of Florida near 24N81W.
A surface trough extends from Lake Okeechobee, to the 1012 mb
low center, to northwestern Cuba. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 23N to 26N between 80W and 84w. Upper
level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development, while this system moves westward 5 to 10 mph into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Squalls and gusty winds are possible in parts of the Florida
Keys on Saturday.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no
ceilings. Florida: light rain in Marathon in the Florida Keys.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 17N to 22N. An upper
level cyclonic circulation center is in the Mona Passage. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W
eastward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 19N to 24N between 60W and 70W. This
precipitation pattern is not showing any signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward about 15 mph. The chance of formation is low.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 72W westward.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...none.

The monsoon trough is along 09N77W, beyond the border of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
from 13N southward from 74W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level N wind flow covers the western half of Hispaniola.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving around the Mona
Passage cyclonic circulation center.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings; scattered cumulonimbus clouds. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB: the current
Mona Passage cyclonic circulation center is forecast to spread
cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center
moves westward during day one. The same cyclonic circulation
center will remain near Hispaniola during day two, spreading
more cyclonic wind flow across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind will cover Hispaniola during
day one, with a trough. More cyclonic wind flow is forecast for
Hispaniola during day two. An inverted trough will remain in the
area of Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
MB shows that SE wind flow will be moving across the area, for
the first 36 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. NE wind flow
will span Hispaniola for the last 12 hours of the time period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N76W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Cuba northward between
70W and the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. A surface trough is
along 31N66W 29N68W 26N70W. Convective precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong from Cuba northward between 65W and
the southeastern coast of the U.S.A., and from 19N to Cuba
between 78W and 83W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N51W.
Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the
area from 20N to 32N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is
along 52W/53W from 27N to 32N. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N29W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward
between 23W and 36W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 30N to 34N between 20W and 28W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 24N
northward between Africa and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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