[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N43W to a 1010 mb low
near 12N42W. These features are moving W at 20 kt. The low remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough as a broad monsoonal gyre. At
this time, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-17N between
34W-47W. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. Due to this, the system
has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with axis
from 19N74W to 10N76W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with
broad 700 mb troughing between 70W-80W and a maximum in 850 mb
relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 15N. No
significant convection is noted on satellite imagery related to
this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis
extending from 22N87W to 14N89W, moving W at 15 kt. Abundant low-
level moisture is noted in Total Precipitable Water imagery across
the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico in
association with the wave. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along the northern portion of the wave north of 18N between 87W-
90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the west African coast near 11N16W
to 11N22W, then resumes near 15N25W to 12N42W to 09N45W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N45W to
06N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave along 43W, scattered moderate convection is 06N-12N and east
of 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula. Please
refer to the section above for details. A 1014 mb surface low is
centered in the Florida Straits near 24N80W. An elongated surface
trough extends from near Grand Bahama Island into the low then SW
across western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-24N
between 73W-85W. An upper-level low is centered over the northwest
Gulf near 29N95W enhancing isolated convection north of 26N
between 94W-97W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered over
eastern Alabama. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
easterly winds across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours
for the low over the Florida Straits to move west. Gusty winds and
the potential for heavy rainfall across Cuba and the Florida Keys
is expected with strong winds and building seas across the
adjacent marine areas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. The surface low centered
over the Florida Straits is also enhancing convection across
portions of Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean mainly north of
17N and west of 75W. Gusty winds and the potential for heavy
rainfall across Cuba and the Florida Keys is expected with strong
winds and building seas across the adjacent marine areas. To the
east, a surface trough extends from the central Atlantic into the
Virgin Islands area near 18N65W. Isolated convection is observed
along this boundary. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours for the
wave to continue moving west. Convection will continue across Cuba
and west Caribbean as the low moves west away from the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather conditions prevail across the island supported by
both unfavorable deep-layer wind shear and strong subsidence
aloft within the NE flow. A surface trough analyzed across the NE
Caribbean Sea will move west reaching the island during the
weekend with increased probability of showers and thunderstorms
expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Please refer to the
Special Features section above for details. A diffluent flow
generated between an elongated upper-level low centered near
30N75W and a broad upper-level anticyclone centered over the E
Gulf of Mexico supports scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the west Atlantic between 70W-80W. To the east; a surface trough
extends from 25N72W to 28N67W to 31N64W with isolated convection.
Another surface trough extends from 22N62W to 18N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the trough mainly north of
19N between 61W-65W. The remainder of the central and eastern
Atlantic remains under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a stationary 1028 mb high centered near 35N41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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