[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical wave extends from 12N41W to 20N41W moving W at 20 kt. A
1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis
that remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough as a broad
monsoonal gyre. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 37W-44W...and from 12N-17N between 37W-44W.

As of 09/1500 UTC...a 1014 mb low was centered in the Florida
Straits near 24N80W. An elongated surface trough extends from near
Grand Bahama Island into the low then SW across western Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-24N between 77W-80W.
Regardless of development through the overnight hours into
Friday...gusty winds and the potential for heavy rainfall across
Cuba and the Florida Keys is expected with strong winds and
building seas across the adjacent marine areas through Saturday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N73W to 19N72W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 68W-77W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave
axis near 15N. No significant deep convection is noted on
satellite imagery at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 13N87W to 23N86W moving W at 15 kt.
Abundant low-level moisture is noted in Total Precipitable Water
imagery across the western Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of
Mexico in association with the wave. Isolated moderate convection
is from 22N-26N between 85W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the west African coast near 10N14W
to 10N17W to 14N33W to 12N41W to 10N42W to 08N45W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N45W to 05N52W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave along
42W...scattered moderate convection is 05N-12N between 11W-23W...
and from 05N-07N between 51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered over
the NW Gulf near 27N95W while an upper level anticyclonic
circulation is centered over the SE Gulf near 24N84W. Only a few
isolated showers are occurring across the NW Gulf waters this
morning as mostly dry air is noted W of 90W. A tropical wave
extends across the Yucatan Channel and along with a favorable
upper level diffluent environment aloft in association with the
ridging...scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 25N
between 82W-88W. The wave is expected to move W to WNW during the
next 24 hours while weakening across the SW Gulf during the
weekend. Otherwise...gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected to
persist through Saturday as surface ridging anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered across Alabama remains nearly stationary through
Saturday. The ridge will gradually erode as broad troughing moves
westward across the Florida peninsula and Florida Straits late
Sunday into Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The primary feature across the Caribbean this afternoon is a
tropical wave along 87W. Most of the convective activity
associated with the wave is noted across the SE Gulf of
Mexico...however isolated showers and tstms extends southward W of
80W...including portions of Central America. To the NE of the
exiting tropical wave...weak surface troughing extends to near
Bermuda...likely a fractured portion of energy from the tropical
wave is generating scattered showers and tstms N of 20N between
76W-81W...including portions of central Cuba. This troughing is
expected to gradually move westward into the Gulf of Mexico during
the next 24 to 36 hours. Otherwise...a broad upper level low is
noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern Caribbean centered
near 17N66W. While dry air embedded within the upper level low is
providing for mostly clear skies across the eastern Caribbean...a
surface trough extends from Saint Kitts and Nevis to 21N61W
providing focus for scattered showers and tstms across the SW
North Atlc waters from 18N-22N between 59W-66W. Finally...moderate
to fresh trades prevail across much of the basin with occasional
strong trades within 120 nm of the coast of Venezuela.

...HISPANIOLA...
Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this afternoon
supported by both unfavorable deep layer wind shear and strong
subsidence aloft within NE flow. A surface trough analyzed across
the NE Caribbean Sea will move across Hispaniola during the
weekend with increased probability of showers and tstms expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Diffluent flow between an elongated upper level low centered near
31N74W and a broad upper level anticyclone centered over the SE
Gulf of Mexico supports scattered showers and tstms across central
Cuba and the SW North Atlc waters from 21N-26N between 73W-81W.
This activity is focused on a surface trough extending from Grand
Bahama island to western Cuba. To the NE...the upper level low
supports another surface trough analyzed from 30N64W to 27N66W to
24N72W. Another area of scattered showers and tstms is occurring
within the vicinity of the surface trough and the area of maximum
middle to upper level diffluence east of the upper level low from
25N-32N between 65W-73W. As mentioned above...an upper level low
is centered over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 17N66W supporting
a surface trough extending from Saint Kitts and Nevis to 21N61W.
Scattered showers and tstms are noted from 17N-22N between 53W-
66W. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
remains under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029
mb high centered near 35N42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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