[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 060854
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

Hermine remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few
small patches of convection located to the south and west of the
center. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory,
based on data collected by the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters
earlier this morning. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to
gradually weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of
baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures. The NHC
intensity forecast is largely based on guidance from the global
models, and shows dissipation by 72 hours.

The cyclone is now moving westward, closer to the coastline, at
about 7 kt.  The system is primarily being steered by a mid- to
upper-level low to its south.  Hermine is expected to slow down
later today, and it will likely stall tonight as it merges with the
upper low. By Wednesday, a turn to the north and then northeast is
predicted as a shortwave trough approaches the system. The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the west this cycle to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on
data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane, an ASCAT overpass, and
surface observations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 39.6N  71.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1800Z 39.5N  72.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/0600Z 39.6N  72.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  07/1800Z 39.8N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/0600Z 40.3N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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