[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 060253
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016

Hermine is a large, occluded low that is beginning - finally - to
spin down some.  While there is some convection associated with the
cyclone, it is not deep and is displaced well southwest of the
center.  Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the peak winds have dropped to about 55 kt.  Given the lack of
deep convection and little baroclinic forcing, continued weakening
and shrinking of the cyclone's wind field is anticipated.  It is
forecast that Hermine will dissipate in about three days.  The NHC
intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is
based upon the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models.

Hermine is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt, primarily
due to the steering induced by an upper- to mid-level cutoff low to
its south. As Hermine merges with this low in the next day, the
cyclone's motion will slow to a crawl.  In about two days, an
upstream shortwave trough in the westerlies will cause Hermine to
begin a northeastward motion until dissipation.  The NHC track
forecast is shifted slightly southwestward, between that from the
previous advisory and the global model consensus.

The Air Force reconnaissance data as well as the Buzzards Bay and
Montauk Point buoys have been crucial for determining the
tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii, which have been
contracted slightly.  The wind radii forecast is based upon the
RVCN wind radii consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 39.6N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1200Z 39.7N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/0000Z 39.7N  71.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  07/1200Z 39.8N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/0000Z 40.4N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Brown
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