[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 012035
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016

The eye of Gaston is no longer visible in geostationary imagery,
which shows the coldest convective tops are located west and north
of the center.  Dvorak classifications have decreased to T3.5/4.5
from TAFB and T3.0/4.0 from SAB.  Based on the winds seen in the
earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is lowered conservatively
to 70 kt for this advisory.  Steady weakening is forecast as Gaston
is moving over waters below 26C and in an environment of 20-30 kt of
southwesterly shear.  The NHC forecast is a little lower than the
previous one following the trend of all the guidance.  Gaston should
become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate shortly
thereafter.

The hurricane has accelerated east-northeastward this afternoon,
with an initial motion estimate of 075/25.  The track model guidance
is in good agreement showing Gaston continuing east-northeastward
with a decrease in forward speed as the system weakens and decouples
from the mid-level flow.  The new NHC track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one and is very close to the latest multi-
model consensus aid TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 38.3N  37.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 38.9N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 39.5N  30.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 40.3N  27.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 41.6N  25.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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