[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 011708
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

Reports from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
the extent of tropical-storm-force winds has increased
significantly in the eastern semicircle.  This requires an
extension of the tropical storm warning southward along both
Florida coasts.  This Special Advisory is being issued to modify
the warnings, and to update the analyzed and forecast wind radii.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track.
Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a large extent of
dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains
well to the east and southeast of the path of the center.

2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a
frontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend.  It
is a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the
mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1700Z 27.8N  85.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 29.0N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 31.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/0000Z 33.1N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1200Z 38.5N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/1200Z 39.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Franklin
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